Cogent Communications Group Stock Probability of Future Stock Price Finishing Under 76.17

CCOI Stock  USD 76.09  1.10  1.47%   
Cogent Communications' future price is the expected price of Cogent Communications instrument. It is based on its current growth rate as well as the projected cash flow expected by the investors. This tool provides a mechanism to make assumptions about the upside potential and downside risk of Cogent Communications Group performance during a given time horizon utilizing its historical volatility. Check out Cogent Communications Backtesting, Cogent Communications Valuation, Cogent Communications Correlation, Cogent Communications Hype Analysis, Cogent Communications Volatility, Cogent Communications History as well as Cogent Communications Performance.
  
As of now, Cogent Communications' Price To Book Ratio is increasing as compared to previous years. The Cogent Communications' current Price Cash Flow Ratio is estimated to increase to 218.13, while Price To Sales Ratio is projected to decrease to 2.89. Please specify Cogent Communications' target price for which you would like Cogent Communications odds to be computed.

Cogent Communications Target Price Odds to finish below 76.17

The tendency of Cogent Stock price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
Current PriceHorizonTarget PriceOdds to stay under $ 76.17  after 90 days
 76.09 90 days 76.17 
about 21.95
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of Cogent Communications to stay under $ 76.17  after 90 days from now is about 21.95 (This Cogent Communications Group probability density function shows the probability of Cogent Stock to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) . Probability of Cogent Communications price to stay between its current price of $ 76.09  and $ 76.17  at the end of the 90-day period is near 1 .
Given the investment horizon of 90 days Cogent Communications has a beta of 0.81 suggesting as returns on the market go up, Cogent Communications average returns are expected to increase less than the benchmark. However, during the bear market, the loss on holding Cogent Communications Group will be expected to be much smaller as well. Additionally Cogent Communications Group has an alpha of 0.0584, implying that it can generate a 0.0584 percent excess return over Dow Jones Industrial after adjusting for the inherited market risk (beta).
   Cogent Communications Price Density   
       Price  

Predictive Modules for Cogent Communications

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Cogent Communications. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimatedHigh
73.0974.7476.39
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowRealHigh
67.4977.2778.92
Details
12 Analysts
Consensus
LowTargetHigh
70.5377.5086.03
Details
Earnings
Estimates (0)
LowProjected EPSHigh
-1.46-1.31-1.24
Details

Cogent Communications Risk Indicators

For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. Cogent Communications is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the Cogent Communications' value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold Cogent Communications Group, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of Cogent Communications within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.
α
Alpha over Dow Jones
0.06
β
Beta against Dow Jones0.81
σ
Overall volatility
3.39
Ir
Information ratio 0.03

Cogent Communications Alerts and Suggestions

In today's market, stock alerts give investors the competitive edge they need to time the market and increase returns. Checking the ongoing alerts of Cogent Communications for significant developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Suggestions and notifications for Cogent Communications can help investors quickly react to important events or material changes in technical or fundamental conditions and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
Over 97.0% of the company shares are held by institutions such as insurance companies
On 6th of December 2024 Cogent Communications paid $ 0.995 per share dividend to its current shareholders
Latest headline from MacroaxisInsider: Acquisition by John Chang of 485 shares of Cogent Communications subject to Rule 16b-3

Cogent Communications Price Density Drivers

Market volatility will typically increase when nervous long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the market lower. The future price of Cogent Stock often depends not only on the future outlook of the current and potential Cogent Communications' investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Cogent Communications' indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
Common Stock Shares Outstanding47.8 M
Cash And Short Term Investments75.1 M

Cogent Communications Technical Analysis

Cogent Communications' future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. Cogent Stock technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of Cogent Communications Group. In general, you should focus on analyzing Cogent Stock price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.

Cogent Communications Predictive Forecast Models

Cogent Communications' time-series forecasting models is one of many Cogent Communications' stock analysis techniques aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models are widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties, e.g., the mean and standard deviation, are not constant over time, but instead, these metrics vary over time. This non-stationary Cogent Communications' historical data is usually called time series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the stock market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.

Things to note about Cogent Communications

Checking the ongoing alerts about Cogent Communications for important developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Our stock alerts and notifications screener for Cogent Communications help investors to be notified of important events, changes in technical or fundamental conditions, and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
Over 97.0% of the company shares are held by institutions such as insurance companies
On 6th of December 2024 Cogent Communications paid $ 0.995 per share dividend to its current shareholders
Latest headline from MacroaxisInsider: Acquisition by John Chang of 485 shares of Cogent Communications subject to Rule 16b-3
When determining whether Cogent Communications offers a strong return on investment in its stock, a comprehensive analysis is essential. The process typically begins with a thorough review of Cogent Communications' financial statements, including income statements, balance sheets, and cash flow statements, to assess its financial health. Key financial ratios are used to gauge profitability, efficiency, and growth potential of Cogent Communications Group Stock. Outlined below are crucial reports that will aid in making a well-informed decision on Cogent Communications Group Stock:
Is Diversified Telecommunication Services space expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Cogent Communications. If investors know Cogent will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Cogent Communications listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Quarterly Earnings Growth
228.092
Dividend Share
3.88
Earnings Share
0.69
Revenue Per Share
20.531
Quarterly Revenue Growth
(0.09)
The market value of Cogent Communications is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Cogent that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Cogent Communications' value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Cogent Communications' true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Cogent Communications' market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Cogent Communications' underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Cogent Communications' value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if Cogent Communications is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Cogent Communications' price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.