Commodity Return Strategy Fund Probability of Future Mutual Fund Price Finishing Under 15.53
| CCRSX Fund | USD 18.00 0.12 0.66% |
Commodity |
Commodity Return Target Price Odds to finish below 15.53
The tendency of Commodity Mutual Fund price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
| Current Price | Horizon | Target Price | Odds to drop to $ 15.53 or more in 90 days |
| 18.00 | 90 days | 15.53 | near 1 |
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of Commodity Return to drop to $ 15.53 or more in 90 days from now is near 1 (This Commodity Return Strategy probability density function shows the probability of Commodity Mutual Fund to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) . Probability of Commodity Return Strategy price to stay between $ 15.53 and its current price of $18.0 at the end of the 90-day period is about 70.35 .
Assuming the 90 days horizon Commodity Return Strategy has a beta of -0.17 suggesting as returns on the benchmark increase, returns on holding Commodity Return are expected to decrease at a much lower rate. During a bear market, however, Commodity Return Strategy is likely to outperform the market. Additionally Commodity Return Strategy has an alpha of 0.0988, implying that it can generate a 0.0988 percent excess return over Dow Jones Industrial after adjusting for the inherited market risk (beta). Commodity Return Price Density |
| Price |
Predictive Modules for Commodity Return
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Commodity Return Strategy. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the mutual fund market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the mutual fund market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Commodity Return's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Commodity Return Risk Indicators
For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. Commodity Return is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the Commodity Return's value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold Commodity Return Strategy, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of Commodity Return within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.α | Alpha over Dow Jones | 0.1 | |
β | Beta against Dow Jones | -0.17 | |
σ | Overall volatility | 0.28 | |
Ir | Information ratio | -0.03 |
Commodity Return Alerts and Suggestions
In today's market, stock alerts give investors the competitive edge they need to time the market and increase returns. Checking the ongoing alerts of Commodity Return for significant developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Suggestions and notifications for Commodity Return Strategy can help investors quickly react to important events or material changes in technical or fundamental conditions and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.| The fund generated-6.0 ten year return of -6.0% | |
| Commodity Return Strategy holds about 77.21% of its assets under management (AUM) in fixed income securities |
Commodity Return Technical Analysis
Commodity Return's future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. Commodity Mutual Fund technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of Commodity Return Strategy. In general, you should focus on analyzing Commodity Mutual Fund price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.
Commodity Return Predictive Forecast Models
Commodity Return's time-series forecasting models is one of many Commodity Return's mutual fund analysis techniques aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models are widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties, e.g., the mean and standard deviation, are not constant over time, but instead, these metrics vary over time. This non-stationary Commodity Return's historical data is usually called time series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the mutual fund market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.
Things to note about Commodity Return Strategy
Checking the ongoing alerts about Commodity Return for important developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Our stock alerts and notifications screener for Commodity Return Strategy help investors to be notified of important events, changes in technical or fundamental conditions, and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
| The fund generated-6.0 ten year return of -6.0% | |
| Commodity Return Strategy holds about 77.21% of its assets under management (AUM) in fixed income securities |
Other Information on Investing in Commodity Mutual Fund
Commodity Return financial ratios help investors to determine whether Commodity Mutual Fund is cheap or expensive when compared to a particular measure, such as profits or enterprise value. In other words, they help investors to determine the cost of investment in Commodity with respect to the benefits of owning Commodity Return security.
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