Central Garden Pet Stock Probability of Future Stock Price Finishing Under 36.97
| CENTA Stock | USD 36.72 2.08 6.00% |
Central |
Central Garden Target Price Odds to finish below 36.97
The tendency of Central Stock price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
| Current Price | Horizon | Target Price | Odds to stay under $ 36.97 after 90 days |
| 36.72 | 90 days | 36.97 | close to 99 |
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of Central Garden to stay under $ 36.97 after 90 days from now is close to 99 (This Central Garden Pet probability density function shows the probability of Central Stock to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) . Probability of Central Garden Pet price to stay between its current price of $ 36.72 and $ 36.97 at the end of the 90-day period is near 1 .
Assuming the 90 days horizon the stock has the beta coefficient of 1.13 suggesting Central Garden Pet market returns are sensitive to returns on the market. As the market goes up or down, Central Garden is expected to follow. Additionally Central Garden Pet has a negative alpha, implying that the risk taken by holding this instrument is not justified. The company is significantly underperforming the Dow Jones Industrial. Central Garden Price Density |
| Price |
Predictive Modules for Central Garden
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Central Garden Pet. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Central Garden's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Central Garden Risk Indicators
For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. Central Garden is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the Central Garden's value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold Central Garden Pet, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of Central Garden within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.α | Alpha over Dow Jones | -0.01 | |
β | Beta against Dow Jones | 1.13 | |
σ | Overall volatility | 2.02 | |
Ir | Information ratio | -0.0011 |
Central Garden Alerts and Suggestions
In today's market, stock alerts give investors the competitive edge they need to time the market and increase returns. Checking the ongoing alerts of Central Garden for significant developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Suggestions and notifications for Central Garden Pet can help investors quickly react to important events or material changes in technical or fundamental conditions and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.| Over 94.0% of the company shares are held by institutions such as insurance companies | |
| Latest headline from gurufocus.com: Central Garden Pet Co Expands Stock Repurchase Program by 100 Million |
Central Garden Price Density Drivers
Market volatility will typically increase when nervous long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the market lower. The future price of Central Stock often depends not only on the future outlook of the current and potential Central Garden's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Central Garden's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 66.9 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 753.5 M |
Central Garden Technical Analysis
Central Garden's future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. Central Stock technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of Central Garden Pet. In general, you should focus on analyzing Central Stock price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.
Central Garden Predictive Forecast Models
Central Garden's time-series forecasting models is one of many Central Garden's stock analysis techniques aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models are widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties, e.g., the mean and standard deviation, are not constant over time, but instead, these metrics vary over time. This non-stationary Central Garden's historical data is usually called time series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the stock market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.
Things to note about Central Garden Pet
Checking the ongoing alerts about Central Garden for important developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Our stock alerts and notifications screener for Central Garden Pet help investors to be notified of important events, changes in technical or fundamental conditions, and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
| Over 94.0% of the company shares are held by institutions such as insurance companies | |
| Latest headline from gurufocus.com: Central Garden Pet Co Expands Stock Repurchase Program by 100 Million |
Check out Central Garden Backtesting, Central Garden Valuation, Central Garden Correlation, Central Garden Hype Analysis, Central Garden Volatility, Central Garden History as well as Central Garden Performance. You can also try the Price Ceiling Movement module to calculate and plot Price Ceiling Movement for different equity instruments.
Is Household Products space expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Central Garden. If investors know Central will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Central Garden listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Quarterly Earnings Growth (0.05) | Earnings Share 1.62 | Revenue Per Share 62.57 | Quarterly Revenue Growth (0.03) | Return On Assets 0.0446 |
The market value of Central Garden Pet is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Central that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Central Garden's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Central Garden's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Central Garden's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Central Garden's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Central Garden's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if Central Garden is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Central Garden's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.