The Chefs Warehouse Stock Probability of Future Stock Price Finishing Under 47.74
| CHEF Stock | USD 48.75 0.03 0.06% |
Chefs |
Chefs Warehouse Target Price Odds to finish below 47.74
The tendency of Chefs Stock price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
| Current Price | Horizon | Target Price | Odds to drop to $ 47.74 or more in 90 days |
| 48.75 | 90 days | 47.74 | about 98.0 |
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of Chefs Warehouse to drop to $ 47.74 or more in 90 days from now is about 98.0 (This The Chefs Warehouse probability density function shows the probability of Chefs Stock to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) . Probability of Chefs Warehouse price to stay between $ 47.74 and its current price of $48.75 at the end of the 90-day period is about 1.29 .
Given the investment horizon of 90 days the stock has the beta coefficient of 1.14 suggesting The Chefs Warehouse market returns are reactive to returns on the market. As the market goes up or down, Chefs Warehouse is expected to follow. Additionally The Chefs Warehouse has an alpha of 0.2117, implying that it can generate a 0.21 percent excess return over Dow Jones Industrial after adjusting for the inherited market risk (beta). Chefs Warehouse Price Density |
| Price |
Predictive Modules for Chefs Warehouse
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Chefs Warehouse. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Chefs Warehouse's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Chefs Warehouse Risk Indicators
For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. Chefs Warehouse is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the Chefs Warehouse's value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold The Chefs Warehouse, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of Chefs Warehouse within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.α | Alpha over Dow Jones | 0.21 | |
β | Beta against Dow Jones | 1.14 | |
σ | Overall volatility | 2.73 | |
Ir | Information ratio | 0.12 |
Chefs Warehouse Alerts and Suggestions
In today's market, stock alerts give investors the competitive edge they need to time the market and increase returns. Checking the ongoing alerts of Chefs Warehouse for significant developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Suggestions and notifications for Chefs Warehouse can help investors quickly react to important events or material changes in technical or fundamental conditions and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.| Chefs Warehouse is unlikely to experience financial distress in the next 2 years | |
| Over 90.0% of the company shares are held by institutions such as insurance companies | |
| Latest headline from MacroaxisInsider: Disposition of 200000 shares by Christopher Pappas of Chefs Warehouse at 48.85 subject to Rule 16b-3 |
Chefs Warehouse Price Density Drivers
Market volatility will typically increase when nervous long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the market lower. The future price of Chefs Stock often depends not only on the future outlook of the current and potential Chefs Warehouse's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Chefs Warehouse's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 45.6 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 49.9 M |
Chefs Warehouse Technical Analysis
Chefs Warehouse's future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. Chefs Stock technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of The Chefs Warehouse. In general, you should focus on analyzing Chefs Stock price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.
Chefs Warehouse Predictive Forecast Models
Chefs Warehouse's time-series forecasting models is one of many Chefs Warehouse's stock analysis techniques aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models are widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties, e.g., the mean and standard deviation, are not constant over time, but instead, these metrics vary over time. This non-stationary Chefs Warehouse's historical data is usually called time series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the stock market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.
Things to note about Chefs Warehouse
Checking the ongoing alerts about Chefs Warehouse for important developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Our stock alerts and notifications screener for Chefs Warehouse help investors to be notified of important events, changes in technical or fundamental conditions, and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
| Chefs Warehouse is unlikely to experience financial distress in the next 2 years | |
| Over 90.0% of the company shares are held by institutions such as insurance companies | |
| Latest headline from MacroaxisInsider: Disposition of 200000 shares by Christopher Pappas of Chefs Warehouse at 48.85 subject to Rule 16b-3 |
Check out Chefs Warehouse Backtesting, Chefs Warehouse Valuation, Chefs Warehouse Correlation, Chefs Warehouse Hype Analysis, Chefs Warehouse Volatility, Chefs Warehouse History as well as Chefs Warehouse Performance. You can also try the Headlines Timeline module to stay connected to all market stories and filter out noise. Drill down to analyze hype elasticity.
Is Consumer Staples Distribution & Retail space expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Chefs Warehouse. If investors know Chefs will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Chefs Warehouse listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Quarterly Earnings Growth 0.766 | Earnings Share 1.16 | Revenue Per Share 98.108 | Quarterly Revenue Growth 0.056 | Return On Assets 0.0444 |
The market value of Chefs Warehouse is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Chefs that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Chefs Warehouse's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Chefs Warehouse's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Chefs Warehouse's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Chefs Warehouse's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Chefs Warehouse's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if Chefs Warehouse is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Chefs Warehouse's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.