Ceylinco Insurance (Sri Lanka) Probability of Future Stock Price Finishing Under 2,552

CINSN0000  LKR 2,548  52.25  2.01%   
Ceylinco Insurance's future price is the expected price of Ceylinco Insurance instrument. It is based on its current growth rate as well as the projected cash flow expected by the investors. This tool provides a mechanism to make assumptions about the upside potential and downside risk of Ceylinco Insurance PLC performance during a given time horizon utilizing its historical volatility. Check out Ceylinco Insurance Backtesting, Ceylinco Insurance Valuation, Ceylinco Insurance Correlation, Ceylinco Insurance Hype Analysis, Ceylinco Insurance Volatility, Ceylinco Insurance History as well as Ceylinco Insurance Performance.
  
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Ceylinco Insurance Target Price Odds to finish below 2,552

The tendency of Ceylinco Stock price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
Current PriceHorizonTarget PriceOdds to move below current price in 90 days
 2,548 90 days 2,548 
about 84.57
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of Ceylinco Insurance to move below current price in 90 days from now is about 84.57 (This Ceylinco Insurance PLC probability density function shows the probability of Ceylinco Stock to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) .
Assuming the 90 days trading horizon Ceylinco Insurance has a beta of 0.53 suggesting as returns on the market go up, Ceylinco Insurance average returns are expected to increase less than the benchmark. However, during the bear market, the loss on holding Ceylinco Insurance PLC will be expected to be much smaller as well. Additionally Ceylinco Insurance PLC has a negative alpha, implying that the risk taken by holding this instrument is not justified. The company is significantly underperforming the Dow Jones Industrial.
   Ceylinco Insurance Price Density   
       Price  

Predictive Modules for Ceylinco Insurance

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Ceylinco Insurance PLC. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimatedHigh
2,5452,5482,550
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowRealHigh
2,2932,2962,803
Details

Ceylinco Insurance Risk Indicators

For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. Ceylinco Insurance is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the Ceylinco Insurance's value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold Ceylinco Insurance PLC, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of Ceylinco Insurance within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.
α
Alpha over Dow Jones
-0.0043
β
Beta against Dow Jones0.53
σ
Overall volatility
80.92
Ir
Information ratio -0.02

Ceylinco Insurance Technical Analysis

Ceylinco Insurance's future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. Ceylinco Stock technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of Ceylinco Insurance PLC. In general, you should focus on analyzing Ceylinco Stock price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.

Ceylinco Insurance Predictive Forecast Models

Ceylinco Insurance's time-series forecasting models is one of many Ceylinco Insurance's stock analysis techniques aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models are widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties, e.g., the mean and standard deviation, are not constant over time, but instead, these metrics vary over time. This non-stationary Ceylinco Insurance's historical data is usually called time series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the stock market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.
Some investors attempt to determine whether the market's mood is bullish or bearish by monitoring changes in market sentiment. Unlike more traditional methods such as technical analysis, investor sentiment usually refers to the aggregate attitude towards Ceylinco Insurance in the overall investment community. So, suppose investors can accurately measure the market's sentiment. In that case, they can use it for their benefit. For example, some tools to gauge market sentiment could be utilized using contrarian indexes, Ceylinco Insurance's short interest history, or implied volatility extrapolated from Ceylinco Insurance options trading.

Other Information on Investing in Ceylinco Stock

Ceylinco Insurance financial ratios help investors to determine whether Ceylinco Stock is cheap or expensive when compared to a particular measure, such as profits or enterprise value. In other words, they help investors to determine the cost of investment in Ceylinco with respect to the benefits of owning Ceylinco Insurance security.