Civitas Resources Stock Probability of Future Stock Price Finishing Under 47.09
| CIVI Stock | USD 48.28 1.21 2.57% |
Closest to current price Civitas long CALL Option Payoff at Expiration
Civitas |
Civitas Resources Target Price Odds to finish below 47.09
The tendency of Civitas Stock price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
| Current Price | Horizon | Target Price | Odds to drop to $ 47.09 or more in 90 days |
| 48.28 | 90 days | 47.09 | about 1.15 |
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of Civitas Resources to drop to $ 47.09 or more in 90 days from now is about 1.15 (This Civitas Resources probability density function shows the probability of Civitas Stock to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) . Probability of Civitas Resources price to stay between $ 47.09 and its current price of $48.28 at the end of the 90-day period is under 4.
Given the investment horizon of 90 days Civitas Resources has a beta of 0.87 suggesting Civitas Resources market returns are responsive to returns on the market. As the market goes up or down, Civitas Resources is expected to follow. Additionally Civitas Resources has a negative alpha, implying that the risk taken by holding this instrument is not justified. The company is significantly underperforming the Dow Jones Industrial. Civitas Resources Price Density |
| Price |
Predictive Modules for Civitas Resources
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Civitas Resources. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Civitas Resources' price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Civitas Resources Risk Indicators
For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. Civitas Resources is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the Civitas Resources' value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold Civitas Resources, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of Civitas Resources within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.α | Alpha over Dow Jones | -0.28 | |
β | Beta against Dow Jones | 0.87 | |
σ | Overall volatility | 1.98 | |
Ir | Information ratio | -0.15 |
Civitas Resources Alerts and Suggestions
In today's market, stock alerts give investors the competitive edge they need to time the market and increase returns. Checking the ongoing alerts of Civitas Resources for significant developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Suggestions and notifications for Civitas Resources can help investors quickly react to important events or material changes in technical or fundamental conditions and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.| Civitas Resources generated a negative expected return over the last 90 days | |
| Civitas Resources is unlikely to experience financial distress in the next 2 years | |
| Civitas Resources currently holds 4.96 B in liabilities with Debt to Equity (D/E) ratio of 0.09, which may suggest the company is not taking enough advantage from borrowing. Civitas Resources has a current ratio of 0.68, indicating that it has a negative working capital and may not be able to pay financial obligations when due. Note, when we think about Civitas Resources' use of debt, we should always consider it together with its cash and equity. | |
| Over 99.0% of Civitas Resources shares are held by institutions such as insurance companies | |
| Latest headline from finance.yahoo.com: Radisson Intersects Bonanza-Grade Gold at OBrien with 1,345 gt Gold Over 1 Metre in Likely Re-Discovery of Famous Jewellery Box |
Civitas Resources Price Density Drivers
Market volatility will typically increase when nervous long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the market lower. The future price of Civitas Stock often depends not only on the future outlook of the current and potential Civitas Resources' investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Civitas Resources' indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 87 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 1.1 B |
Civitas Resources Technical Analysis
Civitas Resources' future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. Civitas Stock technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of Civitas Resources. In general, you should focus on analyzing Civitas Stock price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.
Civitas Resources Predictive Forecast Models
Civitas Resources' time-series forecasting models is one of many Civitas Resources' stock analysis techniques aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models are widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties, e.g., the mean and standard deviation, are not constant over time, but instead, these metrics vary over time. This non-stationary Civitas Resources' historical data is usually called time series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the stock market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.
Things to note about Civitas Resources
Checking the ongoing alerts about Civitas Resources for important developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Our stock alerts and notifications screener for Civitas Resources help investors to be notified of important events, changes in technical or fundamental conditions, and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
| Civitas Resources generated a negative expected return over the last 90 days | |
| Civitas Resources is unlikely to experience financial distress in the next 2 years | |
| Civitas Resources currently holds 4.96 B in liabilities with Debt to Equity (D/E) ratio of 0.09, which may suggest the company is not taking enough advantage from borrowing. Civitas Resources has a current ratio of 0.68, indicating that it has a negative working capital and may not be able to pay financial obligations when due. Note, when we think about Civitas Resources' use of debt, we should always consider it together with its cash and equity. | |
| Over 99.0% of Civitas Resources shares are held by institutions such as insurance companies | |
| Latest headline from finance.yahoo.com: Radisson Intersects Bonanza-Grade Gold at OBrien with 1,345 gt Gold Over 1 Metre in Likely Re-Discovery of Famous Jewellery Box |
Check out Civitas Resources Backtesting, Civitas Resources Valuation, Civitas Resources Correlation, Civitas Resources Hype Analysis, Civitas Resources Volatility, Civitas Resources History as well as Civitas Resources Performance. For more detail on how to invest in Civitas Stock please use our How to Invest in Civitas Resources guide.You can also try the Money Flow Index module to determine momentum by analyzing Money Flow Index and other technical indicators.
Is Oil & Gas Exploration & Production space expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Civitas Resources. If investors know Civitas will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Civitas Resources listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Quarterly Earnings Growth 0.929 | Dividend Share 6.06 | Earnings Share 10.2 | Revenue Per Share 51.373 | Quarterly Revenue Growth 0.228 |
The market value of Civitas Resources is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Civitas that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Civitas Resources' value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Civitas Resources' true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Civitas Resources' market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Civitas Resources' underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Civitas Resources' value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if Civitas Resources is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Civitas Resources' price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.