Commercial Metals Stock Probability of Future Stock Price Finishing Over 65.66

CMC Stock  USD 51.24  2.92  5.39%   
Commercial Metals' future price is the expected price of Commercial Metals instrument. It is based on its current growth rate as well as the projected cash flow expected by the investors. This tool provides a mechanism to make assumptions about the upside potential and downside risk of Commercial Metals performance during a given time horizon utilizing its historical volatility. Check out Commercial Metals Backtesting, Commercial Metals Valuation, Commercial Metals Correlation, Commercial Metals Hype Analysis, Commercial Metals Volatility, Commercial Metals History as well as Commercial Metals Performance.
For information on how to trade Commercial Stock refer to our How to Trade Commercial Stock guide.
  
At present, Commercial Metals' Price To Free Cash Flows Ratio is projected to drop slightly based on the last few years of reporting. The current year's Price Sales Ratio is expected to grow to 0.82, whereas Price Earnings Ratio is forecasted to decline to 12.18. Please specify Commercial Metals' target price for which you would like Commercial Metals odds to be computed.

Commercial Metals Target Price Odds to finish over 65.66

The tendency of Commercial Stock price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
Current PriceHorizonTarget PriceOdds to move over $ 65.66  or more in 90 days
 51.24 90 days 65.66 
about 1.2
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of Commercial Metals to move over $ 65.66  or more in 90 days from now is about 1.2 (This Commercial Metals probability density function shows the probability of Commercial Stock to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) . Probability of Commercial Metals price to stay between its current price of $ 51.24  and $ 65.66  at the end of the 90-day period is about 90.21 .
Considering the 90-day investment horizon the stock has the beta coefficient of 2.54 suggesting as the benchmark fluctuates upward, the company is expected to outperform it on average. However, if the benchmark returns are projected to be negative, Commercial Metals will likely underperform. Additionally Commercial Metals has a negative alpha, implying that the risk taken by holding this instrument is not justified. The company is significantly underperforming the Dow Jones Industrial.
   Commercial Metals Price Density   
       Price  

Predictive Modules for Commercial Metals

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Commercial Metals. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimatedHigh
48.6451.2553.86
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowRealHigh
44.2946.9056.36
Details
9 Analysts
Consensus
LowTargetHigh
51.3256.4062.60
Details
Earnings
Estimates (0)
LowProjected EPSHigh
0.740.830.90
Details

Commercial Metals Risk Indicators

For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. Commercial Metals is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the Commercial Metals' value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold Commercial Metals, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of Commercial Metals within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.
α
Alpha over Dow Jones
-0.03
β
Beta against Dow Jones2.54
σ
Overall volatility
3.98
Ir
Information ratio 0.0009

Commercial Metals Alerts and Suggestions

In today's market, stock alerts give investors the competitive edge they need to time the market and increase returns. Checking the ongoing alerts of Commercial Metals for significant developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Suggestions and notifications for Commercial Metals can help investors quickly react to important events or material changes in technical or fundamental conditions and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
Commercial Metals generated a negative expected return over the last 90 days
Over 90.0% of the company shares are held by institutions such as insurance companies
On 14th of November 2024 Commercial Metals paid $ 0.18 per share dividend to its current shareholders
Latest headline from gurufocus.com: Steel Dynamics Faces Challenges with Lower Q4 EPS Guidance

Commercial Metals Price Density Drivers

Market volatility will typically increase when nervous long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the market lower. The future price of Commercial Stock often depends not only on the future outlook of the current and potential Commercial Metals' investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Commercial Metals' indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
Common Stock Shares Outstanding117.2 M
Cash And Short Term Investments857.9 M

Commercial Metals Technical Analysis

Commercial Metals' future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. Commercial Stock technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of Commercial Metals. In general, you should focus on analyzing Commercial Stock price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.

Commercial Metals Predictive Forecast Models

Commercial Metals' time-series forecasting models is one of many Commercial Metals' stock analysis techniques aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models are widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties, e.g., the mean and standard deviation, are not constant over time, but instead, these metrics vary over time. This non-stationary Commercial Metals' historical data is usually called time series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the stock market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.

Things to note about Commercial Metals

Checking the ongoing alerts about Commercial Metals for important developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Our stock alerts and notifications screener for Commercial Metals help investors to be notified of important events, changes in technical or fundamental conditions, and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
Commercial Metals generated a negative expected return over the last 90 days
Over 90.0% of the company shares are held by institutions such as insurance companies
On 14th of November 2024 Commercial Metals paid $ 0.18 per share dividend to its current shareholders
Latest headline from gurufocus.com: Steel Dynamics Faces Challenges with Lower Q4 EPS Guidance
When determining whether Commercial Metals offers a strong return on investment in its stock, a comprehensive analysis is essential. The process typically begins with a thorough review of Commercial Metals' financial statements, including income statements, balance sheets, and cash flow statements, to assess its financial health. Key financial ratios are used to gauge profitability, efficiency, and growth potential of Commercial Metals Stock. Outlined below are crucial reports that will aid in making a well-informed decision on Commercial Metals Stock:
Check out Commercial Metals Backtesting, Commercial Metals Valuation, Commercial Metals Correlation, Commercial Metals Hype Analysis, Commercial Metals Volatility, Commercial Metals History as well as Commercial Metals Performance.
For information on how to trade Commercial Stock refer to our How to Trade Commercial Stock guide.
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Is Metals & Mining space expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Commercial Metals. If investors know Commercial will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Commercial Metals listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Quarterly Earnings Growth
(0.43)
Dividend Share
0.68
Earnings Share
4.14
Revenue Per Share
68.419
Quarterly Revenue Growth
(0.1)
The market value of Commercial Metals is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Commercial that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Commercial Metals' value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Commercial Metals' true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Commercial Metals' market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Commercial Metals' underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Commercial Metals' value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if Commercial Metals is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Commercial Metals' price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.