Columbia Conservative E Fund Probability of Future Mutual Fund Price Finishing Under 20.12
| CNTEX Fund | USD 20.11 0.05 0.25% |
Columbia |
Columbia Conservative Target Price Odds to finish below 20.12
The tendency of Columbia Mutual Fund price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
| Current Price | Horizon | Target Price | Odds to stay under $ 20.12 after 90 days |
| 20.11 | 90 days | 20.12 | about 78.77 |
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of Columbia Conservative to stay under $ 20.12 after 90 days from now is about 78.77 (This Columbia Conservative E probability density function shows the probability of Columbia Mutual Fund to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) . Probability of Columbia Conservative price to stay between its current price of $ 20.11 and $ 20.12 at the end of the 90-day period is under 4.
Assuming the 90 days horizon Columbia Conservative has a beta of 0.0887 suggesting as returns on the market go up, Columbia Conservative average returns are expected to increase less than the benchmark. However, during the bear market, the loss on holding Columbia Conservative E will be expected to be much smaller as well. Additionally Columbia Conservative E has a negative alpha, implying that the risk taken by holding this instrument is not justified. The company is significantly underperforming the Dow Jones Industrial. Columbia Conservative Price Density |
| Price |
Predictive Modules for Columbia Conservative
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Columbia Conservative. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the mutual fund market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the mutual fund market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Columbia Conservative's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Columbia Conservative Risk Indicators
For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. Columbia Conservative is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the Columbia Conservative's value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold Columbia Conservative E, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of Columbia Conservative within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.α | Alpha over Dow Jones | -0.01 | |
β | Beta against Dow Jones | 0.09 | |
σ | Overall volatility | 0.09 | |
Ir | Information ratio | -0.56 |
Columbia Conservative Technical Analysis
Columbia Conservative's future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. Columbia Mutual Fund technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of Columbia Conservative E. In general, you should focus on analyzing Columbia Mutual Fund price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.
Columbia Conservative Predictive Forecast Models
Columbia Conservative's time-series forecasting models is one of many Columbia Conservative's mutual fund analysis techniques aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models are widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties, e.g., the mean and standard deviation, are not constant over time, but instead, these metrics vary over time. This non-stationary Columbia Conservative's historical data is usually called time series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the mutual fund market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.
Some investors attempt to determine whether the market's mood is bullish or bearish by monitoring changes in market sentiment. Unlike more traditional methods such as technical analysis, investor sentiment usually refers to the aggregate attitude towards Columbia Conservative in the overall investment community. So, suppose investors can accurately measure the market's sentiment. In that case, they can use it for their benefit. For example, some tools to gauge market sentiment could be utilized using contrarian indexes, Columbia Conservative's short interest history, or implied volatility extrapolated from Columbia Conservative options trading.
Other Information on Investing in Columbia Mutual Fund
Columbia Conservative financial ratios help investors to determine whether Columbia Mutual Fund is cheap or expensive when compared to a particular measure, such as profits or enterprise value. In other words, they help investors to determine the cost of investment in Columbia with respect to the benefits of owning Columbia Conservative security.
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