China Pharma Holdings Stock Probability of Future Stock Price Finishing Under 0.47

CPHI Stock  USD 0.18  0.01  5.88%   
China Pharma's future price is the expected price of China Pharma instrument. It is based on its current growth rate as well as the projected cash flow expected by the investors. This tool provides a mechanism to make assumptions about the upside potential and downside risk of China Pharma Holdings performance during a given time horizon utilizing its historical volatility. Check out China Pharma Backtesting, China Pharma Valuation, China Pharma Correlation, China Pharma Hype Analysis, China Pharma Volatility, China Pharma History as well as China Pharma Performance.
  
As of now, China Pharma's Price Fair Value is increasing as compared to previous years. Please specify China Pharma's target price for which you would like China Pharma odds to be computed.

China Pharma Target Price Odds to finish below 0.47

The tendency of China Stock price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
Current PriceHorizonTarget PriceOdds to stay under $ 0.47  after 90 days
 0.18 90 days 0.47 
close to 99
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of China Pharma to stay under $ 0.47  after 90 days from now is close to 99 (This China Pharma Holdings probability density function shows the probability of China Stock to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) . Probability of China Pharma Holdings price to stay between its current price of $ 0.18  and $ 0.47  at the end of the 90-day period is about 91.98 .
Given the investment horizon of 90 days China Pharma Holdings has a beta of -1.6 suggesting as returns on its benchmark rise, returns on holding China Pharma Holdings are expected to decrease by similarly larger amounts. On the other hand, during market turmoils, China Pharma is expected to outperform its benchmark. Additionally China Pharma Holdings has a negative alpha, implying that the risk taken by holding this instrument is not justified. The company is significantly underperforming the Dow Jones Industrial.
   China Pharma Price Density   
       Price  

Predictive Modules for China Pharma

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as China Pharma Holdings. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimatedHigh
0.010.185.72
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowRealHigh
0.010.175.71
Details
Please note, it is not enough to conduct a financial or market analysis of a single entity such as China Pharma. Your research has to be compared to or analyzed against China Pharma's peers to derive any actionable benefits. When done correctly, China Pharma's competitive analysis will give you plenty of quantitative and qualitative data to validate your investment decisions or develop an entirely new strategy toward taking a position in China Pharma Holdings.

China Pharma Risk Indicators

For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. China Pharma is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the China Pharma's value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold China Pharma Holdings, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of China Pharma within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.
α
Alpha over Dow Jones
-0.1
β
Beta against Dow Jones-1.6
σ
Overall volatility
0.03
Ir
Information ratio -0.03

China Pharma Alerts and Suggestions

In today's market, stock alerts give investors the competitive edge they need to time the market and increase returns. Checking the ongoing alerts of China Pharma for significant developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Suggestions and notifications for China Pharma Holdings can help investors quickly react to important events or material changes in technical or fundamental conditions and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
China Pharma generated a negative expected return over the last 90 days
China Pharma has high historical volatility and very poor performance
China Pharma has some characteristics of a very speculative penny stock
China Pharma has high likelihood to experience some financial distress in the next 2 years
China Pharma Holdings currently holds 4.63 M in liabilities with Debt to Equity (D/E) ratio of 2.63, implying the company greatly relies on financing operations through barrowing. China Pharma Holdings has a current ratio of 0.74, indicating that it has a negative working capital and may not be able to pay financial obligations when due. Note, when we think about China Pharma's use of debt, we should always consider it together with its cash and equity.
The entity reported the previous year's revenue of 7.01 M. Net Loss for the year was (3.08 M) with profit before overhead, payroll, taxes, and interest of 349.27 K.
China Pharma Holdings currently holds about 2.24 M in cash with (699.69 K) of positive cash flow from operations. This results in cash-per-share (CPS) ratio of 0.04.
China Pharma has a frail financial position based on the latest SEC disclosures
Roughly 51.0% of China Pharma shares are held by company insiders
Latest headline from news.google.com: Declining Stock and Decent Financials Is The Market Wrong About China Medical System Holdings Limited - Simply Wall St

China Pharma Price Density Drivers

Market volatility will typically increase when nervous long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the market lower. The future price of China Stock often depends not only on the future outlook of the current and potential China Pharma's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. China Pharma's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
Common Stock Shares Outstanding3.4 M
Cash And Short Term Investments1.4 M

China Pharma Technical Analysis

China Pharma's future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. China Stock technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of China Pharma Holdings. In general, you should focus on analyzing China Stock price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.

China Pharma Predictive Forecast Models

China Pharma's time-series forecasting models is one of many China Pharma's stock analysis techniques aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models are widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties, e.g., the mean and standard deviation, are not constant over time, but instead, these metrics vary over time. This non-stationary China Pharma's historical data is usually called time series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the stock market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.

Things to note about China Pharma Holdings

Checking the ongoing alerts about China Pharma for important developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Our stock alerts and notifications screener for China Pharma Holdings help investors to be notified of important events, changes in technical or fundamental conditions, and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
China Pharma generated a negative expected return over the last 90 days
China Pharma has high historical volatility and very poor performance
China Pharma has some characteristics of a very speculative penny stock
China Pharma has high likelihood to experience some financial distress in the next 2 years
China Pharma Holdings currently holds 4.63 M in liabilities with Debt to Equity (D/E) ratio of 2.63, implying the company greatly relies on financing operations through barrowing. China Pharma Holdings has a current ratio of 0.74, indicating that it has a negative working capital and may not be able to pay financial obligations when due. Note, when we think about China Pharma's use of debt, we should always consider it together with its cash and equity.
The entity reported the previous year's revenue of 7.01 M. Net Loss for the year was (3.08 M) with profit before overhead, payroll, taxes, and interest of 349.27 K.
China Pharma Holdings currently holds about 2.24 M in cash with (699.69 K) of positive cash flow from operations. This results in cash-per-share (CPS) ratio of 0.04.
China Pharma has a frail financial position based on the latest SEC disclosures
Roughly 51.0% of China Pharma shares are held by company insiders
Latest headline from news.google.com: Declining Stock and Decent Financials Is The Market Wrong About China Medical System Holdings Limited - Simply Wall St
When determining whether China Pharma Holdings offers a strong return on investment in its stock, a comprehensive analysis is essential. The process typically begins with a thorough review of China Pharma's financial statements, including income statements, balance sheets, and cash flow statements, to assess its financial health. Key financial ratios are used to gauge profitability, efficiency, and growth potential of China Pharma Holdings Stock. Outlined below are crucial reports that will aid in making a well-informed decision on China Pharma Holdings Stock:
Is Pharmaceuticals space expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of China Pharma. If investors know China will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about China Pharma listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Earnings Share
(0.69)
Revenue Per Share
0.63
Quarterly Revenue Growth
(0.16)
Return On Assets
(0.18)
Return On Equity
(0.75)
The market value of China Pharma Holdings is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of China that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of China Pharma's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is China Pharma's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because China Pharma's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect China Pharma's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between China Pharma's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if China Pharma is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, China Pharma's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.