China Shenhua Energy Stock Probability of Future Pink Sheet Price Finishing Over 3.96
| CUAEF Stock | USD 4.55 0.35 8.33% |
China |
China Shenhua Target Price Odds to finish over 3.96
The tendency of China Pink Sheet price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
| Current Price | Horizon | Target Price | Odds to stay above $ 3.96 in 90 days |
| 4.55 | 90 days | 3.96 | under 95 |
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of China Shenhua to stay above $ 3.96 in 90 days from now is under 95 (This China Shenhua Energy probability density function shows the probability of China Pink Sheet to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) . Probability of China Shenhua Energy price to stay between $ 3.96 and its current price of $4.55 at the end of the 90-day period is about 92.83 .
Assuming the 90 days horizon China Shenhua Energy has a beta of -0.25 suggesting as returns on the benchmark increase, returns on holding China Shenhua are expected to decrease at a much lower rate. During a bear market, however, China Shenhua Energy is likely to outperform the market. Additionally China Shenhua Energy has an alpha of 0.2133, implying that it can generate a 0.21 percent excess return over Dow Jones Industrial after adjusting for the inherited market risk (beta). China Shenhua Price Density |
| Price |
Predictive Modules for China Shenhua
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as China Shenhua Energy. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the pink sheet market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the pink sheet market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of China Shenhua's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
China Shenhua Risk Indicators
For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. China Shenhua is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the China Shenhua's value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold China Shenhua Energy, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of China Shenhua within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.α | Alpha over Dow Jones | 0.21 | |
β | Beta against Dow Jones | -0.25 | |
σ | Overall volatility | 0.16 | |
Ir | Information ratio | 0.03 |
China Shenhua Price Density Drivers
Market volatility will typically increase when nervous long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the market lower. The future price of China Pink Sheet often depends not only on the future outlook of the current and potential China Shenhua's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. China Shenhua's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 19.9 B |
China Shenhua Technical Analysis
China Shenhua's future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. China Pink Sheet technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of China Shenhua Energy. In general, you should focus on analyzing China Pink Sheet price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.
China Shenhua Predictive Forecast Models
China Shenhua's time-series forecasting models is one of many China Shenhua's pink sheet analysis techniques aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models are widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties, e.g., the mean and standard deviation, are not constant over time, but instead, these metrics vary over time. This non-stationary China Shenhua's historical data is usually called time series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the pink sheet market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.
Some investors attempt to determine whether the market's mood is bullish or bearish by monitoring changes in market sentiment. Unlike more traditional methods such as technical analysis, investor sentiment usually refers to the aggregate attitude towards China Shenhua in the overall investment community. So, suppose investors can accurately measure the market's sentiment. In that case, they can use it for their benefit. For example, some tools to gauge market sentiment could be utilized using contrarian indexes, China Shenhua's short interest history, or implied volatility extrapolated from China Shenhua options trading.
Other Information on Investing in China Pink Sheet
China Shenhua financial ratios help investors to determine whether China Pink Sheet is cheap or expensive when compared to a particular measure, such as profits or enterprise value. In other words, they help investors to determine the cost of investment in China with respect to the benefits of owning China Shenhua security.