Cyberagent Adr Stock Probability of Future Pink Sheet Price Finishing Over 5.81

CYGIY Stock  USD 3.10  0.03  0.96%   
CyberAgent's future price is the expected price of CyberAgent instrument. It is based on its current growth rate as well as the projected cash flow expected by the investors. This tool provides a mechanism to make assumptions about the upside potential and downside risk of CyberAgent ADR performance during a given time horizon utilizing its historical volatility. Check out CyberAgent Backtesting, CyberAgent Valuation, CyberAgent Correlation, CyberAgent Hype Analysis, CyberAgent Volatility, CyberAgent History as well as CyberAgent Performance.
  
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CyberAgent Target Price Odds to finish over 5.81

The tendency of CyberAgent Pink Sheet price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
Current PriceHorizonTarget PriceOdds to move over $ 5.81  or more in 90 days
 3.10 90 days 5.81 
close to zero percent
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of CyberAgent to move over $ 5.81  or more in 90 days from now is close to zero percent (This CyberAgent ADR probability density function shows the probability of CyberAgent Pink Sheet to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) . Probability of CyberAgent ADR price to stay between its current price of $ 3.10  and $ 5.81  at the end of the 90-day period is about 90.63 .
Assuming the 90 days horizon CyberAgent ADR has a beta of -0.12 suggesting as returns on the benchmark increase, returns on holding CyberAgent are expected to decrease at a much lower rate. During a bear market, however, CyberAgent ADR is likely to outperform the market. Additionally CyberAgent ADR has an alpha of 0.0295, implying that it can generate a 0.0295 percent excess return over Dow Jones Industrial after adjusting for the inherited market risk (beta).
   CyberAgent Price Density   
       Price  

Predictive Modules for CyberAgent

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as CyberAgent ADR. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the pink sheet market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the pink sheet market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimatedHigh
0.443.105.76
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowRealHigh
0.132.605.26
Details
Naive
Forecast
LowNextHigh
0.613.275.93
Details
Bollinger
Band Projection (param)
LowerMiddle BandUpper
3.143.153.15
Details

CyberAgent Risk Indicators

For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. CyberAgent is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the CyberAgent's value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold CyberAgent ADR, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of CyberAgent within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.
α
Alpha over Dow Jones
0.03
β
Beta against Dow Jones-0.12
σ
Overall volatility
0.22
Ir
Information ratio -0.03

CyberAgent Price Density Drivers

Market volatility will typically increase when nervous long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the market lower. The future price of CyberAgent Pink Sheet often depends not only on the future outlook of the current and potential CyberAgent's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. CyberAgent's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
Common Stock Shares Outstanding1.1 B
Cash And Short Term Investments182.4 B

CyberAgent Technical Analysis

CyberAgent's future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. CyberAgent Pink Sheet technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of CyberAgent ADR. In general, you should focus on analyzing CyberAgent Pink Sheet price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.

CyberAgent Predictive Forecast Models

CyberAgent's time-series forecasting models is one of many CyberAgent's pink sheet analysis techniques aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models are widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties, e.g., the mean and standard deviation, are not constant over time, but instead, these metrics vary over time. This non-stationary CyberAgent's historical data is usually called time series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the pink sheet market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.
Some investors attempt to determine whether the market's mood is bullish or bearish by monitoring changes in market sentiment. Unlike more traditional methods such as technical analysis, investor sentiment usually refers to the aggregate attitude towards CyberAgent in the overall investment community. So, suppose investors can accurately measure the market's sentiment. In that case, they can use it for their benefit. For example, some tools to gauge market sentiment could be utilized using contrarian indexes, CyberAgent's short interest history, or implied volatility extrapolated from CyberAgent options trading.

Additional Tools for CyberAgent Pink Sheet Analysis

When running CyberAgent's price analysis, check to measure CyberAgent's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy CyberAgent is operating at the current time. Most of CyberAgent's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of CyberAgent's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move CyberAgent's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of CyberAgent to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.