Kensington Defender Institutional Fund Probability of Future Mutual Fund Price Finishing Over 10.62
| DFNDX Fund | 10.41 0.07 0.68% |
Kensington |
Kensington Defender Target Price Odds to finish over 10.62
The tendency of Kensington Mutual Fund price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
| Current Price | Horizon | Target Price | Odds to move over 10.62 or more in 90 days |
| 10.41 | 90 days | 10.62 | about 50.0 |
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of Kensington Defender to move over 10.62 or more in 90 days from now is about 50.0 (This Kensington Defender Institutional probability density function shows the probability of Kensington Mutual Fund to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) . Probability of Kensington Defender price to stay between its current price of 10.41 and 10.62 at the end of the 90-day period is about 48.97 .
Assuming the 90 days horizon Kensington Defender has a beta of 0.11 suggesting as returns on the market go up, Kensington Defender average returns are expected to increase less than the benchmark. However, during the bear market, the loss on holding Kensington Defender Institutional will be expected to be much smaller as well. Additionally Kensington Defender Institutional has a negative alpha, implying that the risk taken by holding this instrument is not justified. The company is significantly underperforming the Dow Jones Industrial. Kensington Defender Price Density |
| Price |
Predictive Modules for Kensington Defender
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Kensington Defender. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the mutual fund market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the mutual fund market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Kensington Defender's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Kensington Defender Risk Indicators
For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. Kensington Defender is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the Kensington Defender's value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold Kensington Defender Institutional, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of Kensington Defender within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.α | Alpha over Dow Jones | -0.04 | |
β | Beta against Dow Jones | 0.11 | |
σ | Overall volatility | 0.09 | |
Ir | Information ratio | -0.1 |
Kensington Defender Alerts and Suggestions
In today's market, stock alerts give investors the competitive edge they need to time the market and increase returns. Checking the ongoing alerts of Kensington Defender for significant developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Suggestions and notifications for Kensington Defender can help investors quickly react to important events or material changes in technical or fundamental conditions and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.| Kensington Defender generated a negative expected return over the last 90 days | |
| The fund retains all of the assets under management (AUM) in different types of exotic instruments |
Kensington Defender Technical Analysis
Kensington Defender's future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. Kensington Mutual Fund technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of Kensington Defender Institutional. In general, you should focus on analyzing Kensington Mutual Fund price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.
Kensington Defender Predictive Forecast Models
Kensington Defender's time-series forecasting models is one of many Kensington Defender's mutual fund analysis techniques aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models are widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties, e.g., the mean and standard deviation, are not constant over time, but instead, these metrics vary over time. This non-stationary Kensington Defender's historical data is usually called time series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the mutual fund market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.
Things to note about Kensington Defender
Checking the ongoing alerts about Kensington Defender for important developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Our stock alerts and notifications screener for Kensington Defender help investors to be notified of important events, changes in technical or fundamental conditions, and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
| Kensington Defender generated a negative expected return over the last 90 days | |
| The fund retains all of the assets under management (AUM) in different types of exotic instruments |
Other Information on Investing in Kensington Mutual Fund
Kensington Defender financial ratios help investors to determine whether Kensington Mutual Fund is cheap or expensive when compared to a particular measure, such as profits or enterprise value. In other words, they help investors to determine the cost of investment in Kensington with respect to the benefits of owning Kensington Defender security.
| Correlation Analysis Reduce portfolio risk simply by holding instruments which are not perfectly correlated | |
| Price Transformation Use Price Transformation models to analyze the depth of different equity instruments across global markets |