Amcon Distributing Stock Probability of Future Stock Price Finishing Under 121.01
| DIT Stock | USD 131.50 4.00 2.95% |
AMCON |
AMCON Distributing Target Price Odds to finish below 121.01
The tendency of AMCON Stock price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
| Current Price | Horizon | Target Price | Odds to drop to $ 121.01 or more in 90 days |
| 131.50 | 90 days | 121.01 | roughly 2.56 |
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of AMCON Distributing to drop to $ 121.01 or more in 90 days from now is roughly 2.56 (This AMCON Distributing probability density function shows the probability of AMCON Stock to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) . Probability of AMCON Distributing price to stay between $ 121.01 and its current price of $131.5 at the end of the 90-day period is about 29.22 .
Considering the 90-day investment horizon AMCON Distributing has a beta of 0.45 suggesting as returns on the market go up, AMCON Distributing average returns are expected to increase less than the benchmark. However, during the bear market, the loss on holding AMCON Distributing will be expected to be much smaller as well. Additionally AMCON Distributing has a negative alpha, implying that the risk taken by holding this instrument is not justified. The company is significantly underperforming the Dow Jones Industrial. AMCON Distributing Price Density |
| Price |
Predictive Modules for AMCON Distributing
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as AMCON Distributing. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.AMCON Distributing Risk Indicators
For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. AMCON Distributing is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the AMCON Distributing's value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold AMCON Distributing, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of AMCON Distributing within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.α | Alpha over Dow Jones | -0.05 | |
β | Beta against Dow Jones | 0.45 | |
σ | Overall volatility | 7.13 | |
Ir | Information ratio | -0.02 |
AMCON Distributing Alerts and Suggestions
In today's market, stock alerts give investors the competitive edge they need to time the market and increase returns. Checking the ongoing alerts of AMCON Distributing for significant developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Suggestions and notifications for AMCON Distributing can help investors quickly react to important events or material changes in technical or fundamental conditions and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.| AMCON Distributing generated a negative expected return over the last 90 days | |
| AMCON Distributing has high historical volatility and very poor performance | |
| AMCON Distributing has a poor financial position based on the latest SEC disclosures | |
| About 73.0% of the company shares are held by company insiders | |
| On 13th of November 2024 AMCON Distributing paid $ 0.18 per share dividend to its current shareholders | |
| Latest headline from businesswire.com: AMCON Distributing Company Announces 0.28 Special Dividend |
AMCON Distributing Price Density Drivers
Market volatility will typically increase when nervous long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the market lower. The future price of AMCON Stock often depends not only on the future outlook of the current and potential AMCON Distributing's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. AMCON Distributing's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 606.8 K | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 672.8 K |
AMCON Distributing Technical Analysis
AMCON Distributing's future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. AMCON Stock technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of AMCON Distributing. In general, you should focus on analyzing AMCON Stock price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.
AMCON Distributing Predictive Forecast Models
AMCON Distributing's time-series forecasting models is one of many AMCON Distributing's stock analysis techniques aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models are widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties, e.g., the mean and standard deviation, are not constant over time, but instead, these metrics vary over time. This non-stationary AMCON Distributing's historical data is usually called time series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the stock market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.
Things to note about AMCON Distributing
Checking the ongoing alerts about AMCON Distributing for important developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Our stock alerts and notifications screener for AMCON Distributing help investors to be notified of important events, changes in technical or fundamental conditions, and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
| AMCON Distributing generated a negative expected return over the last 90 days | |
| AMCON Distributing has high historical volatility and very poor performance | |
| AMCON Distributing has a poor financial position based on the latest SEC disclosures | |
| About 73.0% of the company shares are held by company insiders | |
| On 13th of November 2024 AMCON Distributing paid $ 0.18 per share dividend to its current shareholders | |
| Latest headline from businesswire.com: AMCON Distributing Company Announces 0.28 Special Dividend |
Additional Tools for AMCON Stock Analysis
When running AMCON Distributing's price analysis, check to measure AMCON Distributing's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy AMCON Distributing is operating at the current time. Most of AMCON Distributing's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of AMCON Distributing's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move AMCON Distributing's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of AMCON Distributing to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.