Dynavax Technologies Stock Probability of Future Stock Price Finishing Under 7.80
| DVAX Stock | USD 12.96 0.03 0.23% |
Dynavax |
Dynavax Technologies Target Price Odds to finish below 7.80
The tendency of Dynavax Stock price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
| Current Price | Horizon | Target Price | Odds to drop to $ 7.80 or more in 90 days |
| 12.96 | 90 days | 7.80 | near 1 |
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of Dynavax Technologies to drop to $ 7.80 or more in 90 days from now is near 1 (This Dynavax Technologies probability density function shows the probability of Dynavax Stock to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) . Probability of Dynavax Technologies price to stay between $ 7.80 and its current price of $12.96 at the end of the 90-day period is about 89.76 .
Given the investment horizon of 90 days the stock has the beta coefficient of 1.14 suggesting Dynavax Technologies market returns are sensitive to returns on the market. As the market goes up or down, Dynavax Technologies is expected to follow. Additionally Dynavax Technologies has an alpha of 0.1671, implying that it can generate a 0.17 percent excess return over Dow Jones Industrial after adjusting for the inherited market risk (beta). Dynavax Technologies Price Density |
| Price |
Predictive Modules for Dynavax Technologies
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Dynavax Technologies. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Dynavax Technologies Risk Indicators
For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. Dynavax Technologies is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the Dynavax Technologies' value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold Dynavax Technologies, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of Dynavax Technologies within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.α | Alpha over Dow Jones | 0.17 | |
β | Beta against Dow Jones | 1.14 | |
σ | Overall volatility | 0.93 | |
Ir | Information ratio | 0.08 |
Dynavax Technologies Alerts and Suggestions
In today's market, stock alerts give investors the competitive edge they need to time the market and increase returns. Checking the ongoing alerts of Dynavax Technologies for significant developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Suggestions and notifications for Dynavax Technologies can help investors quickly react to important events or material changes in technical or fundamental conditions and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.| The company reported the previous year's revenue of 232.28 M. Net Loss for the year was (6.39 M) with profit before overhead, payroll, taxes, and interest of 448.22 M. | |
| Dynavax Technologies has a frail financial position based on the latest SEC disclosures | |
| Over 100.0% of the company shares are held by institutions such as insurance companies | |
| Latest headline from thelincolnianonline.com: Dynavax Technologies Co. Shares Purchased by HighVista Strategies LLC |
Dynavax Technologies Price Density Drivers
Market volatility will typically increase when nervous long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the market lower. The future price of Dynavax Stock often depends not only on the future outlook of the current and potential Dynavax Technologies' investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Dynavax Technologies' indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 128.7 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 742.3 M |
Dynavax Technologies Technical Analysis
Dynavax Technologies' future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. Dynavax Stock technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of Dynavax Technologies. In general, you should focus on analyzing Dynavax Stock price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.
Dynavax Technologies Predictive Forecast Models
Dynavax Technologies' time-series forecasting models is one of many Dynavax Technologies' stock analysis techniques aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models are widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties, e.g., the mean and standard deviation, are not constant over time, but instead, these metrics vary over time. This non-stationary Dynavax Technologies' historical data is usually called time series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the stock market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.
Things to note about Dynavax Technologies
Checking the ongoing alerts about Dynavax Technologies for important developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Our stock alerts and notifications screener for Dynavax Technologies help investors to be notified of important events, changes in technical or fundamental conditions, and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
| The company reported the previous year's revenue of 232.28 M. Net Loss for the year was (6.39 M) with profit before overhead, payroll, taxes, and interest of 448.22 M. | |
| Dynavax Technologies has a frail financial position based on the latest SEC disclosures | |
| Over 100.0% of the company shares are held by institutions such as insurance companies | |
| Latest headline from thelincolnianonline.com: Dynavax Technologies Co. Shares Purchased by HighVista Strategies LLC |
Additional Tools for Dynavax Stock Analysis
When running Dynavax Technologies' price analysis, check to measure Dynavax Technologies' market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Dynavax Technologies is operating at the current time. Most of Dynavax Technologies' value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Dynavax Technologies' future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Dynavax Technologies' price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Dynavax Technologies to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.