Devon Energy (Mexico) Probability of Future Stock Price Finishing Under 724.10
| DVN Stock | MXN 635.00 9.55 1.53% |
Devon |
Devon Energy Target Price Odds to finish below 724.10
The tendency of Devon Stock price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
| Current Price | Horizon | Target Price | Odds to stay under 724.10 after 90 days |
| 635.00 | 90 days | 724.10 | about 26.18 |
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of Devon Energy to stay under 724.10 after 90 days from now is about 26.18 (This Devon Energy probability density function shows the probability of Devon Stock to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) . Probability of Devon Energy price to stay between its current price of 635.00 and 724.10 at the end of the 90-day period is about 24.5 .
Assuming the 90 days trading horizon Devon Energy has a beta of 0.15 suggesting as returns on the market go up, Devon Energy average returns are expected to increase less than the benchmark. However, during the bear market, the loss on holding Devon Energy will be expected to be much smaller as well. Additionally Devon Energy has a negative alpha, implying that the risk taken by holding this instrument is not justified. The company is significantly underperforming the Dow Jones Industrial. Devon Energy Price Density |
| Price |
Predictive Modules for Devon Energy
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Devon Energy. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Devon Energy Risk Indicators
For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. Devon Energy is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the Devon Energy's value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold Devon Energy, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of Devon Energy within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.α | Alpha over Dow Jones | -0.33 | |
β | Beta against Dow Jones | 0.15 | |
σ | Overall volatility | 61.03 | |
Ir | Information ratio | -0.17 |
Devon Energy Alerts and Suggestions
In today's market, stock alerts give investors the competitive edge they need to time the market and increase returns. Checking the ongoing alerts of Devon Energy for significant developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Suggestions and notifications for Devon Energy can help investors quickly react to important events or material changes in technical or fundamental conditions and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.| Devon Energy generated a negative expected return over the last 90 days | |
| Over 81.0% of the company shares are held by institutions such as insurance companies |
Devon Energy Price Density Drivers
Market volatility will typically increase when nervous long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the market lower. The future price of Devon Stock often depends not only on the future outlook of the current and potential Devon Energy's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Devon Energy's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 663 M |
Devon Energy Technical Analysis
Devon Energy's future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. Devon Stock technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of Devon Energy. In general, you should focus on analyzing Devon Stock price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.
Devon Energy Predictive Forecast Models
Devon Energy's time-series forecasting models is one of many Devon Energy's stock analysis techniques aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models are widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties, e.g., the mean and standard deviation, are not constant over time, but instead, these metrics vary over time. This non-stationary Devon Energy's historical data is usually called time series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the stock market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.
Things to note about Devon Energy
Checking the ongoing alerts about Devon Energy for important developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Our stock alerts and notifications screener for Devon Energy help investors to be notified of important events, changes in technical or fundamental conditions, and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
| Devon Energy generated a negative expected return over the last 90 days | |
| Over 81.0% of the company shares are held by institutions such as insurance companies |
Additional Tools for Devon Stock Analysis
When running Devon Energy's price analysis, check to measure Devon Energy's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Devon Energy is operating at the current time. Most of Devon Energy's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Devon Energy's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Devon Energy's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Devon Energy to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.