Erste Group Bank Stock Probability of Future Pink Sheet Price Finishing Under 11.53
| EBKDY Stock | USD 30.71 0.25 0.81% |
Erste |
Erste Group Target Price Odds to finish below 11.53
The tendency of Erste Pink Sheet price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
| Current Price | Horizon | Target Price | Odds to drop to $ 11.53 or more in 90 days |
| 30.71 | 90 days | 11.53 | near 1 |
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of Erste Group to drop to $ 11.53 or more in 90 days from now is near 1 (This Erste Group Bank probability density function shows the probability of Erste Pink Sheet to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) . Probability of Erste Group Bank price to stay between $ 11.53 and its current price of $30.71 at the end of the 90-day period is about 97.0 .
Assuming the 90 days horizon Erste Group has a beta of 0.38 suggesting as returns on the market go up, Erste Group average returns are expected to increase less than the benchmark. However, during the bear market, the loss on holding Erste Group Bank will be expected to be much smaller as well. Additionally Erste Group Bank has an alpha of 0.1987, implying that it can generate a 0.2 percent excess return over Dow Jones Industrial after adjusting for the inherited market risk (beta). Erste Group Price Density |
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Predictive Modules for Erste Group
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Erste Group Bank. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the pink sheet market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the pink sheet market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Erste Group's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Erste Group Risk Indicators
For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. Erste Group is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the Erste Group's value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold Erste Group Bank, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of Erste Group within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.α | Alpha over Dow Jones | 0.20 | |
β | Beta against Dow Jones | 0.38 | |
σ | Overall volatility | 1.40 | |
Ir | Information ratio | 0.12 |
Erste Group Price Density Drivers
Market volatility will typically increase when nervous long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the market lower. The future price of Erste Pink Sheet often depends not only on the future outlook of the current and potential Erste Group's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Erste Group's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 852.5 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 61.9 B |
Erste Group Technical Analysis
Erste Group's future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. Erste Pink Sheet technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of Erste Group Bank. In general, you should focus on analyzing Erste Pink Sheet price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.
Erste Group Predictive Forecast Models
Erste Group's time-series forecasting models is one of many Erste Group's pink sheet analysis techniques aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models are widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties, e.g., the mean and standard deviation, are not constant over time, but instead, these metrics vary over time. This non-stationary Erste Group's historical data is usually called time series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the pink sheet market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.
Some investors attempt to determine whether the market's mood is bullish or bearish by monitoring changes in market sentiment. Unlike more traditional methods such as technical analysis, investor sentiment usually refers to the aggregate attitude towards Erste Group in the overall investment community. So, suppose investors can accurately measure the market's sentiment. In that case, they can use it for their benefit. For example, some tools to gauge market sentiment could be utilized using contrarian indexes, Erste Group's short interest history, or implied volatility extrapolated from Erste Group options trading.
Additional Tools for Erste Pink Sheet Analysis
When running Erste Group's price analysis, check to measure Erste Group's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Erste Group is operating at the current time. Most of Erste Group's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Erste Group's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Erste Group's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Erste Group to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.