Ecarx Holdings Class Stock Probability of Future Stock Price Finishing Under 1.9
| ECX Stock | 2.00 0.05 2.56% |
ECARX |
ECARX Holdings Target Price Odds to finish below 1.9
The tendency of ECARX Stock price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
| Current Price | Horizon | Target Price | Odds to drop to 1.90 or more in 90 days |
| 2.00 | 90 days | 1.90 | about 78.65 |
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of ECARX Holdings to drop to 1.90 or more in 90 days from now is about 78.65 (This ECARX Holdings Class probability density function shows the probability of ECARX Stock to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) . Probability of ECARX Holdings Class price to stay between 1.90 and its current price of 2.0 at the end of the 90-day period is about 17.59 .
Considering the 90-day investment horizon ECARX Holdings has a beta of 0.51 suggesting as returns on the market go up, ECARX Holdings average returns are expected to increase less than the benchmark. However, during the bear market, the loss on holding ECARX Holdings Class will be expected to be much smaller as well. Additionally ECARX Holdings Class has an alpha of 0.1743, implying that it can generate a 0.17 percent excess return over Dow Jones Industrial after adjusting for the inherited market risk (beta). ECARX Holdings Price Density |
| Price |
Predictive Modules for ECARX Holdings
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as ECARX Holdings Class. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of ECARX Holdings' price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
ECARX Holdings Risk Indicators
For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. ECARX Holdings is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the ECARX Holdings' value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold ECARX Holdings Class, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of ECARX Holdings within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.α | Alpha over Dow Jones | 0.17 | |
β | Beta against Dow Jones | 0.51 | |
σ | Overall volatility | 0.10 | |
Ir | Information ratio | 0.03 |
ECARX Holdings Alerts and Suggestions
In today's market, stock alerts give investors the competitive edge they need to time the market and increase returns. Checking the ongoing alerts of ECARX Holdings for significant developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Suggestions and notifications for ECARX Holdings Class can help investors quickly react to important events or material changes in technical or fundamental conditions and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.| ECARX Holdings Class had very high historical volatility over the last 90 days | |
| ECARX Holdings Class has high likelihood to experience some financial distress in the next 2 years | |
| The company reported the last year's revenue of 4.67 B. Reported Net Loss for the year was (1.02 B) with profit before taxes, overhead, and interest of 993.88 M. | |
| ECARX Holdings generates negative cash flow from operations | |
| ECARX Holdings Class has a very weak financial position based on the latest SEC disclosures | |
| About 63.0% of the company shares are held by company insiders | |
| Latest headline from gurufocus.com: ECX Stock Surges Amid Positive Analyst Ratings |
ECARX Holdings Price Density Drivers
Market volatility will typically increase when nervous long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the market lower. The future price of ECARX Stock often depends not only on the future outlook of the current and potential ECARX Holdings' investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. ECARX Holdings' indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 337.4 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 699 M |
ECARX Holdings Technical Analysis
ECARX Holdings' future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. ECARX Stock technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of ECARX Holdings Class. In general, you should focus on analyzing ECARX Stock price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.
ECARX Holdings Predictive Forecast Models
ECARX Holdings' time-series forecasting models is one of many ECARX Holdings' stock analysis techniques aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models are widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties, e.g., the mean and standard deviation, are not constant over time, but instead, these metrics vary over time. This non-stationary ECARX Holdings' historical data is usually called time series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the stock market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.
Things to note about ECARX Holdings Class
Checking the ongoing alerts about ECARX Holdings for important developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Our stock alerts and notifications screener for ECARX Holdings Class help investors to be notified of important events, changes in technical or fundamental conditions, and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
| ECARX Holdings Class had very high historical volatility over the last 90 days | |
| ECARX Holdings Class has high likelihood to experience some financial distress in the next 2 years | |
| The company reported the last year's revenue of 4.67 B. Reported Net Loss for the year was (1.02 B) with profit before taxes, overhead, and interest of 993.88 M. | |
| ECARX Holdings generates negative cash flow from operations | |
| ECARX Holdings Class has a very weak financial position based on the latest SEC disclosures | |
| About 63.0% of the company shares are held by company insiders | |
| Latest headline from gurufocus.com: ECX Stock Surges Amid Positive Analyst Ratings |
Additional Tools for ECARX Stock Analysis
When running ECARX Holdings' price analysis, check to measure ECARX Holdings' market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy ECARX Holdings is operating at the current time. Most of ECARX Holdings' value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of ECARX Holdings' future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move ECARX Holdings' price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of ECARX Holdings to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.