Ellington Financial Stock Probability of Future Stock Price Finishing Over 23.34

EFC-PD Stock   23.06  0.30  1.28%   
Ellington Financial's future price is the expected price of Ellington Financial instrument. It is based on its current growth rate as well as the projected cash flow expected by the investors. This tool provides a mechanism to make assumptions about the upside potential and downside risk of Ellington Financial performance during a given time horizon utilizing its historical volatility. Check out Ellington Financial Backtesting, Ellington Financial Valuation, Ellington Financial Correlation, Ellington Financial Hype Analysis, Ellington Financial Volatility, Ellington Financial History as well as Ellington Financial Performance.
For information on how to trade Ellington Stock refer to our How to Trade Ellington Stock guide.
  
At present, Ellington Financial's Price Book Value Ratio is projected to slightly decrease based on the last few years of reporting. The current year's Price To Book Ratio is expected to grow to 0.85, whereas Price Earnings To Growth Ratio is projected to grow to (0.01). Please specify Ellington Financial's target price for which you would like Ellington Financial odds to be computed.

Ellington Financial Target Price Odds to finish over 23.34

The tendency of Ellington Stock price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
Current PriceHorizonTarget PriceOdds to move over  23.34  or more in 90 days
 23.06 90 days 23.34 
about 7.24
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of Ellington Financial to move over  23.34  or more in 90 days from now is about 7.24 (This Ellington Financial probability density function shows the probability of Ellington Stock to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) . Probability of Ellington Financial price to stay between its current price of  23.06  and  23.34  at the end of the 90-day period is about 11.84 .
Assuming the 90 days trading horizon Ellington Financial has a beta of 0.0094 suggesting as returns on the market go up, Ellington Financial average returns are expected to increase less than the benchmark. However, during the bear market, the loss on holding Ellington Financial will be expected to be much smaller as well. Additionally Ellington Financial has an alpha of 0.1229, implying that it can generate a 0.12 percent excess return over Dow Jones Industrial after adjusting for the inherited market risk (beta).
   Ellington Financial Price Density   
       Price  

Predictive Modules for Ellington Financial

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Ellington Financial. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimatedHigh
21.8723.0924.31
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowRealHigh
20.7524.4025.62
Details
Naive
Forecast
LowNextHigh
22.1823.4024.62
Details
Bollinger
Band Projection (param)
LowerMiddle BandUpper
22.3122.8723.43
Details

Ellington Financial Risk Indicators

For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. Ellington Financial is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the Ellington Financial's value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold Ellington Financial, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of Ellington Financial within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.
α
Alpha over Dow Jones
0.12
β
Beta against Dow Jones0.01
σ
Overall volatility
0.48
Ir
Information ratio -0.0027

Ellington Financial Alerts and Suggestions

In today's market, stock alerts give investors the competitive edge they need to time the market and increase returns. Checking the ongoing alerts of Ellington Financial for significant developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Suggestions and notifications for Ellington Financial can help investors quickly react to important events or material changes in technical or fundamental conditions and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
Ellington Financial generates negative cash flow from operations

Ellington Financial Price Density Drivers

Market volatility will typically increase when nervous long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the market lower. The future price of Ellington Stock often depends not only on the future outlook of the current and potential Ellington Financial's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Ellington Financial's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
Common Stock Shares Outstanding69.1 M
Cash And Short Term Investments228.9 M

Ellington Financial Technical Analysis

Ellington Financial's future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. Ellington Stock technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of Ellington Financial. In general, you should focus on analyzing Ellington Stock price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.

Ellington Financial Predictive Forecast Models

Ellington Financial's time-series forecasting models is one of many Ellington Financial's stock analysis techniques aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models are widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties, e.g., the mean and standard deviation, are not constant over time, but instead, these metrics vary over time. This non-stationary Ellington Financial's historical data is usually called time series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the stock market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.

Things to note about Ellington Financial

Checking the ongoing alerts about Ellington Financial for important developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Our stock alerts and notifications screener for Ellington Financial help investors to be notified of important events, changes in technical or fundamental conditions, and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
Ellington Financial generates negative cash flow from operations
When determining whether Ellington Financial offers a strong return on investment in its stock, a comprehensive analysis is essential. The process typically begins with a thorough review of Ellington Financial's financial statements, including income statements, balance sheets, and cash flow statements, to assess its financial health. Key financial ratios are used to gauge profitability, efficiency, and growth potential of Ellington Financial Stock. Outlined below are crucial reports that will aid in making a well-informed decision on Ellington Financial Stock:
Check out Ellington Financial Backtesting, Ellington Financial Valuation, Ellington Financial Correlation, Ellington Financial Hype Analysis, Ellington Financial Volatility, Ellington Financial History as well as Ellington Financial Performance.
For information on how to trade Ellington Stock refer to our How to Trade Ellington Stock guide.
You can also try the Portfolio Volatility module to check portfolio volatility and analyze historical return density to properly model market risk.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Ellington Financial's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if Ellington Financial is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Ellington Financial's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.