Ellington Financial Stock Probability of Future Stock Price Finishing Under 24.17
| EFC-PE Stock | 25.56 0.00 0.00% |
Ellington |
Ellington Financial Target Price Odds to finish below 24.17
The tendency of Ellington Stock price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
| Current Price | Horizon | Target Price | Odds to drop to 24.17 or more in 90 days |
| 25.56 | 90 days | 24.17 | near 1 |
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of Ellington Financial to drop to 24.17 or more in 90 days from now is near 1 (This Ellington Financial probability density function shows the probability of Ellington Stock to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) . Probability of Ellington Financial price to stay between 24.17 and its current price of 25.56 at the end of the 90-day period is about 87.55 .
Assuming the 90 days trading horizon Ellington Financial has a beta of -0.0791 suggesting as returns on the benchmark increase, returns on holding Ellington Financial are expected to decrease at a much lower rate. During a bear market, however, Ellington Financial is likely to outperform the market. Additionally Ellington Financial has an alpha of 0.0213, implying that it can generate a 0.0213 percent excess return over Dow Jones Industrial after adjusting for the inherited market risk (beta). Ellington Financial Price Density |
| Price |
Predictive Modules for Ellington Financial
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Ellington Financial. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Ellington Financial Risk Indicators
For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. Ellington Financial is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the Ellington Financial's value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold Ellington Financial, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of Ellington Financial within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.α | Alpha over Dow Jones | 0.02 | |
β | Beta against Dow Jones | -0.08 | |
σ | Overall volatility | 0.13 | |
Ir | Information ratio | -0.01 |
Ellington Financial Alerts and Suggestions
In today's market, stock alerts give investors the competitive edge they need to time the market and increase returns. Checking the ongoing alerts of Ellington Financial for significant developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Suggestions and notifications for Ellington Financial can help investors quickly react to important events or material changes in technical or fundamental conditions and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.| Ellington Financial is not yet fully synchronised with the market data | |
| Ellington Financial generates negative cash flow from operations |
Ellington Financial Price Density Drivers
Market volatility will typically increase when nervous long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the market lower. The future price of Ellington Stock often depends not only on the future outlook of the current and potential Ellington Financial's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Ellington Financial's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 69.1 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 230.5 M |
Ellington Financial Technical Analysis
Ellington Financial's future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. Ellington Stock technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of Ellington Financial. In general, you should focus on analyzing Ellington Stock price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.
Ellington Financial Predictive Forecast Models
Ellington Financial's time-series forecasting models is one of many Ellington Financial's stock analysis techniques aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models are widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties, e.g., the mean and standard deviation, are not constant over time, but instead, these metrics vary over time. This non-stationary Ellington Financial's historical data is usually called time series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the stock market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.
Things to note about Ellington Financial
Checking the ongoing alerts about Ellington Financial for important developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Our stock alerts and notifications screener for Ellington Financial help investors to be notified of important events, changes in technical or fundamental conditions, and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
| Ellington Financial is not yet fully synchronised with the market data | |
| Ellington Financial generates negative cash flow from operations |
Check out Investing Opportunities to better understand how to build diversified portfolios. Also, note that the market value of any company could be closely tied with the direction of predictive economic indicators such as signals in board of governors. You can also try the Global Correlations module to find global opportunities by holding instruments from different markets.