Wells Fargo Advantage Fund Probability of Future Mutual Fund Price Finishing Under 49.87

EKWCX Fund  USD 51.64  1.14  2.16%   
Wells Fargo's future price is the expected price of Wells Fargo instrument. It is based on its current growth rate as well as the projected cash flow expected by the investors. This tool provides a mechanism to make assumptions about the upside potential and downside risk of Wells Fargo Advantage performance during a given time horizon utilizing its historical volatility. Check out Wells Fargo Backtesting, Portfolio Optimization, Wells Fargo Correlation, Wells Fargo Hype Analysis, Wells Fargo Volatility, Wells Fargo History as well as Wells Fargo Performance.
For more information on how to buy Wells Mutual Fund please use our How to Invest in Wells Fargo guide.
  
Please specify Wells Fargo's target price for which you would like Wells Fargo odds to be computed.

Wells Fargo Target Price Odds to finish below 49.87

The tendency of Wells Mutual Fund price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
Current PriceHorizonTarget PriceOdds to drop to $ 49.87  or more in 90 days
 51.64 90 days 49.87 
roughly 2.21
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of Wells Fargo to drop to $ 49.87  or more in 90 days from now is roughly 2.21 (This Wells Fargo Advantage probability density function shows the probability of Wells Mutual Fund to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) . Probability of Wells Fargo Advantage price to stay between $ 49.87  and its current price of $51.64 at the end of the 90-day period is about 10.18 .
Assuming the 90 days horizon Wells Fargo Advantage has a beta of -0.16 suggesting as returns on the benchmark increase, returns on holding Wells Fargo are expected to decrease at a much lower rate. During a bear market, however, Wells Fargo Advantage is likely to outperform the market. Additionally Wells Fargo Advantage has a negative alpha, implying that the risk taken by holding this instrument is not justified. The company is significantly underperforming the Dow Jones Industrial.
   Wells Fargo Price Density   
       Price  

Predictive Modules for Wells Fargo

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Wells Fargo Advantage. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the mutual fund market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the mutual fund market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Wells Fargo's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimatedHigh
49.8851.6453.40
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowRealHigh
46.3148.0756.80
Details

Wells Fargo Risk Indicators

For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. Wells Fargo is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the Wells Fargo's value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold Wells Fargo Advantage, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of Wells Fargo within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.
α
Alpha over Dow Jones
-0.02
β
Beta against Dow Jones-0.16
σ
Overall volatility
2.08
Ir
Information ratio -0.07

Wells Fargo Alerts and Suggestions

In today's market, stock alerts give investors the competitive edge they need to time the market and increase returns. Checking the ongoing alerts of Wells Fargo for significant developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Suggestions and notifications for Wells Fargo Advantage can help investors quickly react to important events or material changes in technical or fundamental conditions and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
Wells Fargo generated a negative expected return over the last 90 days
The fund generated-3.0 ten year return of -3.0%
Wells Fargo Advantage retains 92.97% of its assets under management (AUM) in equities

Wells Fargo Technical Analysis

Wells Fargo's future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. Wells Mutual Fund technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of Wells Fargo Advantage. In general, you should focus on analyzing Wells Mutual Fund price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.

Wells Fargo Predictive Forecast Models

Wells Fargo's time-series forecasting models is one of many Wells Fargo's mutual fund analysis techniques aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models are widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties, e.g., the mean and standard deviation, are not constant over time, but instead, these metrics vary over time. This non-stationary Wells Fargo's historical data is usually called time series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the mutual fund market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.

Things to note about Wells Fargo Advantage

Checking the ongoing alerts about Wells Fargo for important developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Our stock alerts and notifications screener for Wells Fargo Advantage help investors to be notified of important events, changes in technical or fundamental conditions, and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
Wells Fargo generated a negative expected return over the last 90 days
The fund generated-3.0 ten year return of -3.0%
Wells Fargo Advantage retains 92.97% of its assets under management (AUM) in equities

Other Information on Investing in Wells Mutual Fund

Wells Fargo financial ratios help investors to determine whether Wells Mutual Fund is cheap or expensive when compared to a particular measure, such as profits or enterprise value. In other words, they help investors to determine the cost of investment in Wells with respect to the benefits of owning Wells Fargo security.
Portfolio Suggestion
Get suggestions outside of your existing asset allocation including your own model portfolios
Idea Breakdown
Analyze constituents of all Macroaxis ideas. Macroaxis investment ideas are predefined, sector-focused investing themes
Price Exposure Probability
Analyze equity upside and downside potential for a given time horizon across multiple markets
Performance Analysis
Check effects of mean-variance optimization against your current asset allocation