Grupo Elektra (Mexico) Probability of Future Stock Price Finishing Under 301.04
| ELEKTRA Stock | MXN 336.71 3.30 0.97% |
Grupo |
Grupo Elektra Target Price Odds to finish below 301.04
The tendency of Grupo Stock price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
| Current Price | Horizon | Target Price | Odds to drop to 301.04 or more in 90 days |
| 336.71 | 90 days | 301.04 | roughly 2.85 |
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of Grupo Elektra to drop to 301.04 or more in 90 days from now is roughly 2.85 (This Grupo Elektra SAB probability density function shows the probability of Grupo Stock to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) . Probability of Grupo Elektra SAB price to stay between 301.04 and its current price of 336.71 at the end of the 90-day period is about 1.01 .
Assuming the 90 days trading horizon Grupo Elektra has a beta of 0.92 suggesting Grupo Elektra SAB market returns are sensitive to returns on the market. As the market goes up or down, Grupo Elektra is expected to follow. Additionally Grupo Elektra SAB has a negative alpha, implying that the risk taken by holding this instrument is not justified. The company is significantly underperforming the Dow Jones Industrial. Grupo Elektra Price Density |
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Predictive Modules for Grupo Elektra
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Grupo Elektra SAB. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Grupo Elektra's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Grupo Elektra Risk Indicators
For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. Grupo Elektra is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the Grupo Elektra's value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold Grupo Elektra SAB, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of Grupo Elektra within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.α | Alpha over Dow Jones | -0.72 | |
β | Beta against Dow Jones | 0.92 | |
σ | Overall volatility | 261.85 | |
Ir | Information ratio | -0.07 |
Grupo Elektra Alerts and Suggestions
In today's market, stock alerts give investors the competitive edge they need to time the market and increase returns. Checking the ongoing alerts of Grupo Elektra for significant developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Suggestions and notifications for Grupo Elektra SAB can help investors quickly react to important events or material changes in technical or fundamental conditions and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.| Grupo Elektra SAB generated a negative expected return over the last 90 days | |
| Grupo Elektra SAB has high historical volatility and very poor performance | |
| About 79.0% of the company shares are held by company insiders |
Grupo Elektra Price Density Drivers
Market volatility will typically increase when nervous long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the market lower. The future price of Grupo Stock often depends not only on the future outlook of the current and potential Grupo Elektra's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Grupo Elektra's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 245.6 M |
Grupo Elektra Technical Analysis
Grupo Elektra's future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. Grupo Stock technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of Grupo Elektra SAB. In general, you should focus on analyzing Grupo Stock price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.
Grupo Elektra Predictive Forecast Models
Grupo Elektra's time-series forecasting models is one of many Grupo Elektra's stock analysis techniques aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models are widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties, e.g., the mean and standard deviation, are not constant over time, but instead, these metrics vary over time. This non-stationary Grupo Elektra's historical data is usually called time series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the stock market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.
Things to note about Grupo Elektra SAB
Checking the ongoing alerts about Grupo Elektra for important developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Our stock alerts and notifications screener for Grupo Elektra SAB help investors to be notified of important events, changes in technical or fundamental conditions, and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
| Grupo Elektra SAB generated a negative expected return over the last 90 days | |
| Grupo Elektra SAB has high historical volatility and very poor performance | |
| About 79.0% of the company shares are held by company insiders |
Other Information on Investing in Grupo Stock
Grupo Elektra financial ratios help investors to determine whether Grupo Stock is cheap or expensive when compared to a particular measure, such as profits or enterprise value. In other words, they help investors to determine the cost of investment in Grupo with respect to the benefits of owning Grupo Elektra security.