Deka MDAX (Germany) Probability of Future Etf Price Finishing Under 246.85
| ELF1 Etf | 248.80 2.90 1.15% |
Deka |
Deka MDAX Target Price Odds to finish below 246.85
The tendency of Deka Etf price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
| Current Price | Horizon | Target Price | Odds to drop to 246.85 or more in 90 days |
| 248.80 | 90 days | 246.85 | about 25.68 |
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of Deka MDAX to drop to 246.85 or more in 90 days from now is about 25.68 (This Deka MDAX UCITS probability density function shows the probability of Deka Etf to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) . Probability of Deka MDAX UCITS price to stay between 246.85 and its current price of 248.8 at the end of the 90-day period is about 16.72 .
Assuming the 90 days trading horizon Deka MDAX has a beta of 0.0118 suggesting as returns on the market go up, Deka MDAX average returns are expected to increase less than the benchmark. However, during the bear market, the loss on holding Deka MDAX UCITS will be expected to be much smaller as well. Additionally Deka MDAX UCITS has an alpha of 0.0466, implying that it can generate a 0.0466 percent excess return over Dow Jones Industrial after adjusting for the inherited market risk (beta). Deka MDAX Price Density |
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Predictive Modules for Deka MDAX
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Deka MDAX UCITS. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the etf market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the etf market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Deka MDAX Risk Indicators
For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. Deka MDAX is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the Deka MDAX's value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold Deka MDAX UCITS, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of Deka MDAX within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.α | Alpha over Dow Jones | 0.05 | |
β | Beta against Dow Jones | 0.01 | |
σ | Overall volatility | 4.25 | |
Ir | Information ratio | -0.05 |
Deka MDAX Technical Analysis
Deka MDAX's future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. Deka Etf technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of Deka MDAX UCITS. In general, you should focus on analyzing Deka Etf price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.
Deka MDAX Predictive Forecast Models
Deka MDAX's time-series forecasting models is one of many Deka MDAX's etf analysis techniques aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models are widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties, e.g., the mean and standard deviation, are not constant over time, but instead, these metrics vary over time. This non-stationary Deka MDAX's historical data is usually called time series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the etf market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.
Some investors attempt to determine whether the market's mood is bullish or bearish by monitoring changes in market sentiment. Unlike more traditional methods such as technical analysis, investor sentiment usually refers to the aggregate attitude towards Deka MDAX in the overall investment community. So, suppose investors can accurately measure the market's sentiment. In that case, they can use it for their benefit. For example, some tools to gauge market sentiment could be utilized using contrarian indexes, Deka MDAX's short interest history, or implied volatility extrapolated from Deka MDAX options trading.