Bakrieland Development (Indonesia) Probability of Future Stock Price Finishing Under 13.95
| ELTY Stock | IDR 14.00 1.00 6.67% |
Bakrieland |
Bakrieland Development Target Price Odds to finish below 13.95
The tendency of Bakrieland Stock price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
| Current Price | Horizon | Target Price | Odds to drop to 13.95 or more in 90 days |
| 14.00 | 90 days | 13.95 | about 41.87 |
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of Bakrieland Development to drop to 13.95 or more in 90 days from now is about 41.87 (This Bakrieland Development Tbk probability density function shows the probability of Bakrieland Stock to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) . Probability of Bakrieland Development price to stay between 13.95 and its current price of 14.0 at the end of the 90-day period is about 1.04 .
Assuming the 90 days trading horizon Bakrieland Development has a beta of 0.0701 suggesting as returns on the market go up, Bakrieland Development average returns are expected to increase less than the benchmark. However, during the bear market, the loss on holding Bakrieland Development Tbk will be expected to be much smaller as well. Additionally Bakrieland Development Tbk has a negative alpha, implying that the risk taken by holding this instrument is not justified. The company is significantly underperforming the Dow Jones Industrial. Bakrieland Development Price Density |
| Price |
Predictive Modules for Bakrieland Development
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Bakrieland Development. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Bakrieland Development Risk Indicators
For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. Bakrieland Development is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the Bakrieland Development's value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold Bakrieland Development Tbk, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of Bakrieland Development within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.α | Alpha over Dow Jones | -0.1 | |
β | Beta against Dow Jones | 0.07 | |
σ | Overall volatility | 1.88 | |
Ir | Information ratio | -0.04 |
Bakrieland Development Alerts and Suggestions
In today's market, stock alerts give investors the competitive edge they need to time the market and increase returns. Checking the ongoing alerts of Bakrieland Development for significant developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Suggestions and notifications for Bakrieland Development can help investors quickly react to important events or material changes in technical or fundamental conditions and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.| Bakrieland Development generated a negative expected return over the last 90 days | |
| Bakrieland Development has high historical volatility and very poor performance | |
| Bakrieland Development has high likelihood to experience some financial distress in the next 2 years | |
| The company reported the revenue of 784.41 B. Net Loss for the year was (201.91 B) with profit before overhead, payroll, taxes, and interest of 177.38 B. |
Bakrieland Development Price Density Drivers
Market volatility will typically increase when nervous long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the market lower. The future price of Bakrieland Stock often depends not only on the future outlook of the current and potential Bakrieland Development's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Bakrieland Development's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 43.5 B | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 119.3 B |
Bakrieland Development Technical Analysis
Bakrieland Development's future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. Bakrieland Stock technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of Bakrieland Development Tbk. In general, you should focus on analyzing Bakrieland Stock price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.
Bakrieland Development Predictive Forecast Models
Bakrieland Development's time-series forecasting models is one of many Bakrieland Development's stock analysis techniques aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models are widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties, e.g., the mean and standard deviation, are not constant over time, but instead, these metrics vary over time. This non-stationary Bakrieland Development's historical data is usually called time series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the stock market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.
Things to note about Bakrieland Development
Checking the ongoing alerts about Bakrieland Development for important developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Our stock alerts and notifications screener for Bakrieland Development help investors to be notified of important events, changes in technical or fundamental conditions, and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
| Bakrieland Development generated a negative expected return over the last 90 days | |
| Bakrieland Development has high historical volatility and very poor performance | |
| Bakrieland Development has high likelihood to experience some financial distress in the next 2 years | |
| The company reported the revenue of 784.41 B. Net Loss for the year was (201.91 B) with profit before overhead, payroll, taxes, and interest of 177.38 B. |
Other Information on Investing in Bakrieland Stock
Bakrieland Development financial ratios help investors to determine whether Bakrieland Stock is cheap or expensive when compared to a particular measure, such as profits or enterprise value. In other words, they help investors to determine the cost of investment in Bakrieland with respect to the benefits of owning Bakrieland Development security.