Emcore Stock Chance of Future Stock Price Finishing Under 1.96
| EMKR Stock | USD 2.95 0.02 0.68% |
EMCORE |
EMCORE Target Price Odds to finish below 1.96
The tendency of EMCORE Stock price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
| Current Price | Horizon | Target Price | Odds to drop to $ 1.96 or more in 90 days |
| 2.95 | 90 days | 1.96 | about 29.73 |
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of EMCORE to drop to $ 1.96 or more in 90 days from now is about 29.73 (This EMCORE probability density function shows the probability of EMCORE Stock to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) . Probability of EMCORE price to stay between $ 1.96 and its current price of $2.95 at the end of the 90-day period is about 53.59 .
Given the investment horizon of 90 days the stock has the beta coefficient of 1.29 suggesting as the benchmark fluctuates upward, the company is expected to outperform it on average. However, if the benchmark returns are projected to be negative, EMCORE will likely underperform. Moreover EMCORE has an alpha of 1.913, implying that it can generate a 1.91 percent excess return over Dow Jones Industrial after adjusting for the inherited market risk (beta). EMCORE Price Density |
| Price |
Predictive Modules for EMCORE
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as EMCORE. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.EMCORE Risk Indicators
For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. EMCORE is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the EMCORE's value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold EMCORE, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of EMCORE within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.α | Alpha over Dow Jones | 1.91 | |
β | Beta against Dow Jones | 1.29 | |
σ | Overall volatility | 0.66 | |
Ir | Information ratio | 0.17 |
EMCORE Alerts and Suggestions
In today's market, stock alerts give investors the competitive edge they need to time the market and increase returns. Checking the ongoing alerts of EMCORE for significant developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Suggestions and notifications for EMCORE can help investors quickly react to important events or material changes in technical or fundamental conditions and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.| EMCORE is way too risky over 90 days horizon | |
| EMCORE appears to be risky and price may revert if volatility continues | |
| EMCORE has high likelihood to experience some financial distress in the next 2 years | |
| The company reported the previous year's revenue of 97.72 M. Net Loss for the year was (49.41 M) with profit before overhead, payroll, taxes, and interest of 29.72 M. | |
| EMCORE currently holds about 74.61 M in cash with (33.64 M) of positive cash flow from operations. This results in cash-per-share (CPS) ratio of 1.99. | |
| Roughly 24.0% of the company shares are held by company insiders | |
| Latest headline from MacroaxisInsider: Disposition of 1880 shares by Matthew Vargas of EMCORE subject to Rule 16b-3 |
EMCORE Price Density Drivers
Market volatility will typically increase when nervous long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the market lower. The future price of EMCORE Stock often depends not only on the future outlook of the current and potential EMCORE's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. EMCORE's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 5.2 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 26.7 M |
EMCORE Technical Analysis
EMCORE's future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. EMCORE Stock technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of EMCORE. In general, you should focus on analyzing EMCORE Stock price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.
EMCORE Predictive Forecast Models
EMCORE's time-series forecasting models is one of many EMCORE's stock analysis techniques aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models are widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties, e.g., the mean and standard deviation, are not constant over time, but instead, these metrics vary over time. This non-stationary EMCORE's historical data is usually called time series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the stock market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.
Things to note about EMCORE
Checking the ongoing alerts about EMCORE for important developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Our stock alerts and notifications screener for EMCORE help investors to be notified of important events, changes in technical or fundamental conditions, and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
| EMCORE is way too risky over 90 days horizon | |
| EMCORE appears to be risky and price may revert if volatility continues | |
| EMCORE has high likelihood to experience some financial distress in the next 2 years | |
| The company reported the previous year's revenue of 97.72 M. Net Loss for the year was (49.41 M) with profit before overhead, payroll, taxes, and interest of 29.72 M. | |
| EMCORE currently holds about 74.61 M in cash with (33.64 M) of positive cash flow from operations. This results in cash-per-share (CPS) ratio of 1.99. | |
| Roughly 24.0% of the company shares are held by company insiders | |
| Latest headline from MacroaxisInsider: Disposition of 1880 shares by Matthew Vargas of EMCORE subject to Rule 16b-3 |
Additional Tools for EMCORE Stock Analysis
When running EMCORE's price analysis, check to measure EMCORE's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy EMCORE is operating at the current time. Most of EMCORE's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of EMCORE's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move EMCORE's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of EMCORE to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.