Essential Properties Realty Stock Probability of Future Stock Price Finishing Over 30.47

EPRT Stock  USD 33.29  0.24  0.73%   
Essential Properties' implied volatility is one of the determining factors in the pricing options written on Essential Properties Realty. Implied volatility approximates the future value of Essential Properties based on the option's current value. Options with high implied volatility have higher premiums and can be used to hedge the downside of investing in Essential Properties Realty over a specific time period. For example, EPRT Option Call 20-12-2024 35 is a CALL option contract on Essential Properties' common stock with a strick price of 35.0 expiring on 2024-12-20. The contract was last traded on 2024-11-29 at 12:20:55 for $0.39 and, as of today, has 16 days remaining before the expiration. The option is currently trading at a bid price of $0.05, and an ask price of $0.3. The implied volatility as of the 4th of December is 16.0. View All Essential options

Closest to current price Essential long CALL Option Payoff at Expiration

Essential Properties' future price is the expected price of Essential Properties instrument. It is based on its current growth rate as well as the projected cash flow expected by the investors. This tool provides a mechanism to make assumptions about the upside potential and downside risk of Essential Properties Realty performance during a given time horizon utilizing its historical volatility. Check out Essential Properties Backtesting, Essential Properties Valuation, Essential Properties Correlation, Essential Properties Hype Analysis, Essential Properties Volatility, Essential Properties History as well as Essential Properties Performance.
  
At this time, Essential Properties' Price Fair Value is comparatively stable compared to the past year. Please specify Essential Properties' target price for which you would like Essential Properties odds to be computed.

Essential Properties Target Price Odds to finish over 30.47

The tendency of Essential Stock price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
Current PriceHorizonTarget PriceOdds to stay above $ 30.47  in 90 days
 33.29 90 days 30.47 
close to 99
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of Essential Properties to stay above $ 30.47  in 90 days from now is close to 99 (This Essential Properties Realty probability density function shows the probability of Essential Stock to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) . Probability of Essential Properties price to stay between $ 30.47  and its current price of $33.29 at the end of the 90-day period is about 65.24 .
Given the investment horizon of 90 days Essential Properties has a beta of 0.23 suggesting as returns on the market go up, Essential Properties average returns are expected to increase less than the benchmark. However, during the bear market, the loss on holding Essential Properties Realty will be expected to be much smaller as well. Additionally Essential Properties Realty has an alpha of 0.0389, implying that it can generate a 0.0389 percent excess return over Dow Jones Industrial after adjusting for the inherited market risk (beta).
   Essential Properties Price Density   
       Price  

Predictive Modules for Essential Properties

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Essential Properties. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimatedHigh
31.8833.0034.12
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowRealHigh
28.9330.0536.35
Details
Naive
Forecast
LowNextHigh
32.0333.1534.26
Details
16 Analysts
Consensus
LowTargetHigh
24.6527.0930.07
Details

Essential Properties Risk Indicators

For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. Essential Properties is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the Essential Properties' value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold Essential Properties Realty, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of Essential Properties within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.
α
Alpha over Dow Jones
0.04
β
Beta against Dow Jones0.23
σ
Overall volatility
0.81
Ir
Information ratio -0.04

Essential Properties Alerts and Suggestions

In today's market, stock alerts give investors the competitive edge they need to time the market and increase returns. Checking the ongoing alerts of Essential Properties for significant developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Suggestions and notifications for Essential Properties can help investors quickly react to important events or material changes in technical or fundamental conditions and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
Essential Properties is unlikely to experience financial distress in the next 2 years
Over 99.0% of the company shares are held by institutions such as insurance companies
On 11th of October 2024 Essential Properties paid $ 0.29 per share dividend to its current shareholders
Latest headline from thelincolnianonline.com: Truvestments Capital LLC Grows Holdings in Essential Properties Realty Trust, Inc.

Essential Properties Price Density Drivers

Market volatility will typically increase when nervous long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the market lower. The future price of Essential Stock often depends not only on the future outlook of the current and potential Essential Properties' investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Essential Properties' indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
Common Stock Shares Outstanding153.5 M
Cash And Short Term Investments39.8 M

Essential Properties Technical Analysis

Essential Properties' future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. Essential Stock technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of Essential Properties Realty. In general, you should focus on analyzing Essential Stock price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.

Essential Properties Predictive Forecast Models

Essential Properties' time-series forecasting models is one of many Essential Properties' stock analysis techniques aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models are widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties, e.g., the mean and standard deviation, are not constant over time, but instead, these metrics vary over time. This non-stationary Essential Properties' historical data is usually called time series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the stock market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.

Things to note about Essential Properties

Checking the ongoing alerts about Essential Properties for important developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Our stock alerts and notifications screener for Essential Properties help investors to be notified of important events, changes in technical or fundamental conditions, and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
Essential Properties is unlikely to experience financial distress in the next 2 years
Over 99.0% of the company shares are held by institutions such as insurance companies
On 11th of October 2024 Essential Properties paid $ 0.29 per share dividend to its current shareholders
Latest headline from thelincolnianonline.com: Truvestments Capital LLC Grows Holdings in Essential Properties Realty Trust, Inc.

Additional Tools for Essential Stock Analysis

When running Essential Properties' price analysis, check to measure Essential Properties' market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Essential Properties is operating at the current time. Most of Essential Properties' value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Essential Properties' future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Essential Properties' price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Essential Properties to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.