Erste Group (Czech Republic) Probability of Future Stock Price Finishing Under 888.11
| ERBAG Stock | CZK 1,294 6.50 0.50% |
Erste |
Erste Group Target Price Odds to finish below 888.11
The tendency of Erste Stock price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
| Current Price | Horizon | Target Price | Odds to drop to 888.11 or more in 90 days |
| 1,294 | 90 days | 888.11 | near 1 |
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of Erste Group to drop to 888.11 or more in 90 days from now is near 1 (This Erste Group Bank probability density function shows the probability of Erste Stock to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) . Probability of Erste Group Bank price to stay between 888.11 and its current price of 1293.5 at the end of the 90-day period is about 75.6 .
Assuming the 90 days trading horizon Erste Group has a beta of 0.32 suggesting as returns on the market go up, Erste Group average returns are expected to increase less than the benchmark. However, during the bear market, the loss on holding Erste Group Bank will be expected to be much smaller as well. Additionally Erste Group Bank has an alpha of 0.0329, implying that it can generate a 0.0329 percent excess return over Dow Jones Industrial after adjusting for the inherited market risk (beta). Erste Group Price Density |
| Price |
Predictive Modules for Erste Group
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Erste Group Bank. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Erste Group Risk Indicators
For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. Erste Group is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the Erste Group's value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold Erste Group Bank, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of Erste Group within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.α | Alpha over Dow Jones | 0.03 | |
β | Beta against Dow Jones | 0.32 | |
σ | Overall volatility | 49.44 | |
Ir | Information ratio | -0.05 |
Erste Group Alerts and Suggestions
In today's market, stock alerts give investors the competitive edge they need to time the market and increase returns. Checking the ongoing alerts of Erste Group for significant developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Suggestions and notifications for Erste Group Bank can help investors quickly react to important events or material changes in technical or fundamental conditions and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.| Erste Group Bank has accumulated about 15.74 B in cash with (7.58 B) of positive cash flow from operations. This results in cash-per-share (CPS) ratio of 38.82. | |
| Roughly 25.0% of the company shares are held by company insiders |
Erste Group Price Density Drivers
Market volatility will typically increase when nervous long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the market lower. The future price of Erste Stock often depends not only on the future outlook of the current and potential Erste Group's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Erste Group's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Dividend Yield | 0.0466 | |
| Forward Annual Dividend Rate | 39.44 | |
| Shares Float | 327 M |
Erste Group Technical Analysis
Erste Group's future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. Erste Stock technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of Erste Group Bank. In general, you should focus on analyzing Erste Stock price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.
Erste Group Predictive Forecast Models
Erste Group's time-series forecasting models is one of many Erste Group's stock analysis techniques aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models are widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties, e.g., the mean and standard deviation, are not constant over time, but instead, these metrics vary over time. This non-stationary Erste Group's historical data is usually called time series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the stock market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.
Things to note about Erste Group Bank
Checking the ongoing alerts about Erste Group for important developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Our stock alerts and notifications screener for Erste Group Bank help investors to be notified of important events, changes in technical or fundamental conditions, and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
| Erste Group Bank has accumulated about 15.74 B in cash with (7.58 B) of positive cash flow from operations. This results in cash-per-share (CPS) ratio of 38.82. | |
| Roughly 25.0% of the company shares are held by company insiders |
Additional Tools for Erste Stock Analysis
When running Erste Group's price analysis, check to measure Erste Group's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Erste Group is operating at the current time. Most of Erste Group's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Erste Group's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Erste Group's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Erste Group to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.