Erie Indemnity Stock Probability of Future Stock Price Finishing Under 426.86
| ERIE Stock | USD 419.32 4.82 1.14% |
Erie |
Erie Indemnity Target Price Odds to finish below 426.86
The tendency of Erie Stock price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
| Current Price | Horizon | Target Price | Odds to stay under $ 426.86 after 90 days |
| 419.32 | 90 days | 426.86 | about 28.65 |
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of Erie Indemnity to stay under $ 426.86 after 90 days from now is about 28.65 (This Erie Indemnity probability density function shows the probability of Erie Stock to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) . Probability of Erie Indemnity price to stay between its current price of $ 419.32 and $ 426.86 at the end of the 90-day period is about 5.05 .
Given the investment horizon of 90 days Erie Indemnity has a beta of 0.31 suggesting as returns on the market go up, Erie Indemnity average returns are expected to increase less than the benchmark. However, during the bear market, the loss on holding Erie Indemnity will be expected to be much smaller as well. Additionally Erie Indemnity has a negative alpha, implying that the risk taken by holding this instrument is not justified. The company is significantly underperforming the Dow Jones Industrial. Erie Indemnity Price Density |
| Price |
Predictive Modules for Erie Indemnity
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Erie Indemnity. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Erie Indemnity Risk Indicators
For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. Erie Indemnity is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the Erie Indemnity's value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold Erie Indemnity, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of Erie Indemnity within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.α | Alpha over Dow Jones | -0.37 | |
β | Beta against Dow Jones | 0.31 | |
σ | Overall volatility | 48.61 | |
Ir | Information ratio | -0.2 |
Erie Indemnity Alerts and Suggestions
In today's market, stock alerts give investors the competitive edge they need to time the market and increase returns. Checking the ongoing alerts of Erie Indemnity for significant developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Suggestions and notifications for Erie Indemnity can help investors quickly react to important events or material changes in technical or fundamental conditions and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.| Erie Indemnity generated a negative expected return over the last 90 days | |
| About 46.0% of the company shares are held by company insiders | |
| Latest headline from finance.yahoo.com: AM Best Assigns Credit Ratings to The Japan Ship Owners Mutual Protection Indemnity Association |
Erie Indemnity Price Density Drivers
Market volatility will typically increase when nervous long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the market lower. The future price of Erie Stock often depends not only on the future outlook of the current and potential Erie Indemnity's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Erie Indemnity's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 46.2 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 226.1 M |
Erie Indemnity Technical Analysis
Erie Indemnity's future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. Erie Stock technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of Erie Indemnity. In general, you should focus on analyzing Erie Stock price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.
Erie Indemnity Predictive Forecast Models
Erie Indemnity's time-series forecasting models is one of many Erie Indemnity's stock analysis techniques aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models are widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties, e.g., the mean and standard deviation, are not constant over time, but instead, these metrics vary over time. This non-stationary Erie Indemnity's historical data is usually called time series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the stock market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.
Things to note about Erie Indemnity
Checking the ongoing alerts about Erie Indemnity for important developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Our stock alerts and notifications screener for Erie Indemnity help investors to be notified of important events, changes in technical or fundamental conditions, and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
| Erie Indemnity generated a negative expected return over the last 90 days | |
| About 46.0% of the company shares are held by company insiders | |
| Latest headline from finance.yahoo.com: AM Best Assigns Credit Ratings to The Japan Ship Owners Mutual Protection Indemnity Association |
Check out Erie Indemnity Backtesting, Erie Indemnity Valuation, Erie Indemnity Correlation, Erie Indemnity Hype Analysis, Erie Indemnity Volatility, Erie Indemnity History as well as Erie Indemnity Performance. For information on how to trade Erie Stock refer to our How to Trade Erie Stock guide.You can also try the Earnings Calls module to check upcoming earnings announcements updated hourly across public exchanges.
Is Property & Casualty Insurance space expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Erie Indemnity. If investors know Erie will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Erie Indemnity listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Quarterly Earnings Growth 0.22 | Dividend Share 5.1 | Earnings Share 10.69 | Revenue Per Share 79.861 | Quarterly Revenue Growth 0.164 |
The market value of Erie Indemnity is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Erie that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Erie Indemnity's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Erie Indemnity's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Erie Indemnity's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Erie Indemnity's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Erie Indemnity's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if Erie Indemnity is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Erie Indemnity's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.