Eratex Djaja (Indonesia) Probability of Future Stock Price Finishing Under 101.17
| ERTX Stock | IDR 104.00 2.00 1.89% |
Eratex |
Eratex Djaja Target Price Odds to finish below 101.17
The tendency of Eratex Stock price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
| Current Price | Horizon | Target Price | Odds to drop to 101.17 or more in 90 days |
| 104.00 | 90 days | 101.17 | about 22.88 |
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of Eratex Djaja to drop to 101.17 or more in 90 days from now is about 22.88 (This Eratex Djaja Tbk probability density function shows the probability of Eratex Stock to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) . Probability of Eratex Djaja Tbk price to stay between 101.17 and its current price of 104.0 at the end of the 90-day period is about 10.18 .
Assuming the 90 days trading horizon Eratex Djaja has a beta of 0.96 suggesting Eratex Djaja Tbk market returns are very sensitive to returns on the market. As the market goes up or down, Eratex Djaja is expected to follow. Additionally Eratex Djaja Tbk has a negative alpha, implying that the risk taken by holding this instrument is not justified. The company is significantly underperforming the Dow Jones Industrial. Eratex Djaja Price Density |
| Price |
Predictive Modules for Eratex Djaja
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Eratex Djaja Tbk. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Eratex Djaja Risk Indicators
For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. Eratex Djaja is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the Eratex Djaja's value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold Eratex Djaja Tbk, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of Eratex Djaja within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.α | Alpha over Dow Jones | -0.29 | |
β | Beta against Dow Jones | 0.96 | |
σ | Overall volatility | 9.31 | |
Ir | Information ratio | -0.06 |
Eratex Djaja Alerts and Suggestions
In today's market, stock alerts give investors the competitive edge they need to time the market and increase returns. Checking the ongoing alerts of Eratex Djaja for significant developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Suggestions and notifications for Eratex Djaja Tbk can help investors quickly react to important events or material changes in technical or fundamental conditions and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.| Eratex Djaja Tbk generated a negative expected return over the last 90 days | |
| Eratex Djaja Tbk has high historical volatility and very poor performance | |
| Eratex Djaja Tbk has high financial leverage indicating that it may have difficulties to generate enough cash to satisfy its financial obligations | |
| Eratex Djaja Tbk has accumulated about 4.31 M in cash with (1.05 M) of positive cash flow from operations. | |
| Roughly 97.0% of the company shares are held by company insiders |
Eratex Djaja Price Density Drivers
Market volatility will typically increase when nervous long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the market lower. The future price of Eratex Stock often depends not only on the future outlook of the current and potential Eratex Djaja's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Eratex Djaja's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 1.3 B | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 4 M |
Eratex Djaja Technical Analysis
Eratex Djaja's future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. Eratex Stock technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of Eratex Djaja Tbk. In general, you should focus on analyzing Eratex Stock price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.
Eratex Djaja Predictive Forecast Models
Eratex Djaja's time-series forecasting models is one of many Eratex Djaja's stock analysis techniques aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models are widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties, e.g., the mean and standard deviation, are not constant over time, but instead, these metrics vary over time. This non-stationary Eratex Djaja's historical data is usually called time series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the stock market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.
Things to note about Eratex Djaja Tbk
Checking the ongoing alerts about Eratex Djaja for important developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Our stock alerts and notifications screener for Eratex Djaja Tbk help investors to be notified of important events, changes in technical or fundamental conditions, and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
| Eratex Djaja Tbk generated a negative expected return over the last 90 days | |
| Eratex Djaja Tbk has high historical volatility and very poor performance | |
| Eratex Djaja Tbk has high financial leverage indicating that it may have difficulties to generate enough cash to satisfy its financial obligations | |
| Eratex Djaja Tbk has accumulated about 4.31 M in cash with (1.05 M) of positive cash flow from operations. | |
| Roughly 97.0% of the company shares are held by company insiders |
Other Information on Investing in Eratex Stock
Eratex Djaja financial ratios help investors to determine whether Eratex Stock is cheap or expensive when compared to a particular measure, such as profits or enterprise value. In other words, they help investors to determine the cost of investment in Eratex with respect to the benefits of owning Eratex Djaja security.