Essa Bancorp Stock Probability of Future Stock Price Finishing Under 20.26
| ESSA Stock | USD 20.49 0.26 1.29% |
ESSA |
ESSA Bancorp Target Price Odds to finish below 20.26
The tendency of ESSA Stock price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
| Current Price | Horizon | Target Price | Odds to drop to $ 20.26 or more in 90 days |
| 20.49 | 90 days | 20.26 | about 84.85 |
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of ESSA Bancorp to drop to $ 20.26 or more in 90 days from now is about 84.85 (This ESSA Bancorp probability density function shows the probability of ESSA Stock to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) . Probability of ESSA Bancorp price to stay between $ 20.26 and its current price of $20.49 at the end of the 90-day period is about 5.72 .
Given the investment horizon of 90 days ESSA Bancorp has a beta of 0.18 suggesting as returns on the market go up, ESSA Bancorp average returns are expected to increase less than the benchmark. However, during the bear market, the loss on holding ESSA Bancorp will be expected to be much smaller as well. Additionally ESSA Bancorp has an alpha of 0.1657, implying that it can generate a 0.17 percent excess return over Dow Jones Industrial after adjusting for the inherited market risk (beta). ESSA Bancorp Price Density |
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Predictive Modules for ESSA Bancorp
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as ESSA Bancorp. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of ESSA Bancorp's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
ESSA Bancorp Risk Indicators
For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. ESSA Bancorp is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the ESSA Bancorp's value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold ESSA Bancorp, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of ESSA Bancorp within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.α | Alpha over Dow Jones | 0.17 | |
β | Beta against Dow Jones | 0.18 | |
σ | Overall volatility | 0.80 | |
Ir | Information ratio | 0.03 |
ESSA Bancorp Alerts and Suggestions
In today's market, stock alerts give investors the competitive edge they need to time the market and increase returns. Checking the ongoing alerts of ESSA Bancorp for significant developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Suggestions and notifications for ESSA Bancorp can help investors quickly react to important events or material changes in technical or fundamental conditions and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.| ESSA Bancorp has a poor financial position based on the latest SEC disclosures | |
| About 15.0% of the company shares are held by company insiders | |
| Latest headline from investing.com: ESSA Bancorp extends executive employment agreements |
ESSA Bancorp Price Density Drivers
Market volatility will typically increase when nervous long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the market lower. The future price of ESSA Stock often depends not only on the future outlook of the current and potential ESSA Bancorp's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. ESSA Bancorp's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 9.5 M | |
| Dividends Paid | 5.9 M | |
| Forward Annual Dividend Rate | 0.6 | |
| Shares Float | 6.7 M |
ESSA Bancorp Technical Analysis
ESSA Bancorp's future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. ESSA Stock technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of ESSA Bancorp. In general, you should focus on analyzing ESSA Stock price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.
ESSA Bancorp Predictive Forecast Models
ESSA Bancorp's time-series forecasting models is one of many ESSA Bancorp's stock analysis techniques aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models are widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties, e.g., the mean and standard deviation, are not constant over time, but instead, these metrics vary over time. This non-stationary ESSA Bancorp's historical data is usually called time series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the stock market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.
Things to note about ESSA Bancorp
Checking the ongoing alerts about ESSA Bancorp for important developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Our stock alerts and notifications screener for ESSA Bancorp help investors to be notified of important events, changes in technical or fundamental conditions, and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
| ESSA Bancorp has a poor financial position based on the latest SEC disclosures | |
| About 15.0% of the company shares are held by company insiders | |
| Latest headline from investing.com: ESSA Bancorp extends executive employment agreements |
Check out ESSA Bancorp Backtesting, ESSA Bancorp Valuation, ESSA Bancorp Correlation, ESSA Bancorp Hype Analysis, ESSA Bancorp Volatility, ESSA Bancorp History as well as ESSA Bancorp Performance. For information on how to trade ESSA Stock refer to our How to Trade ESSA Stock guide.You can also try the Fundamentals Comparison module to compare fundamentals across multiple equities to find investing opportunities.
Is Regional Banks space expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of ESSA Bancorp. If investors know ESSA will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about ESSA Bancorp listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Quarterly Earnings Growth (0.06) | Dividend Share 0.6 | Earnings Share 1.8 | Revenue Per Share 7.127 | Quarterly Revenue Growth (0.04) |
The market value of ESSA Bancorp is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of ESSA that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of ESSA Bancorp's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is ESSA Bancorp's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because ESSA Bancorp's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect ESSA Bancorp's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between ESSA Bancorp's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if ESSA Bancorp is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, ESSA Bancorp's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.