FedEx (Brazil) Chance of Future Stock Price Finishing Under 1,675

FDXB34 Stock  BRL 1,715  108.65  5.96%   
FedEx's future price is the expected price of FedEx instrument. It is based on its current growth rate as well as the projected cash flow expected by the investors. This tool provides a mechanism to make assumptions about the upside potential and downside risk of FedEx performance during a given time horizon utilizing its historical volatility. Check out FedEx Backtesting, FedEx Valuation, FedEx Correlation, FedEx Hype Analysis, FedEx Volatility, FedEx History as well as FedEx Performance.
For information on how to trade FedEx Stock refer to our How to Trade FedEx Stock guide.
  
Please specify FedEx's target price for which you would like FedEx odds to be computed.

FedEx Target Price Odds to finish below 1,675

The tendency of FedEx Stock price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
Current PriceHorizonTarget PriceOdds to move below current price in 90 days
 1,715 90 days 1,715 
about 89.59
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of FedEx to move below current price in 90 days from now is about 89.59 (This FedEx probability density function shows the probability of FedEx Stock to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) .
Assuming the 90 days trading horizon FedEx has a beta of 0.0941. This usually indicates as returns on the market go up, FedEx average returns are expected to increase less than the benchmark. However, during the bear market, the loss on holding FedEx will be expected to be much smaller as well. Additionally FedEx has an alpha of 0.0693, implying that it can generate a 0.0693 percent excess return over Dow Jones Industrial after adjusting for the inherited market risk (beta).
   FedEx Price Density   
       Price  

Predictive Modules for FedEx

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as FedEx. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimatedHigh
1,7131,7151,718
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowRealHigh
1,3991,4021,887
Details
Naive
Forecast
LowNextHigh
1,8741,8771,879
Details
Bollinger
Band Projection (param)
LowerMiddle BandUpper
1,6501,7311,812
Details
Please note, it is not enough to conduct a financial or market analysis of a single entity such as FedEx. Your research has to be compared to or analyzed against FedEx's peers to derive any actionable benefits. When done correctly, FedEx's competitive analysis will give you plenty of quantitative and qualitative data to validate your investment decisions or develop an entirely new strategy toward taking a position in FedEx.

FedEx Risk Indicators

For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. FedEx is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the FedEx's value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold FedEx, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of FedEx within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.
α
Alpha over Dow Jones
0.07
β
Beta against Dow Jones0.09
σ
Overall volatility
108.17
Ir
Information ratio -0.02

FedEx Price Density Drivers

Market volatility will typically increase when nervous long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the market lower. The future price of FedEx Stock often depends not only on the future outlook of the current and potential FedEx's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. FedEx's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
Common Stock Shares Outstanding259.8 M

FedEx Technical Analysis

FedEx's future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. FedEx Stock technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of FedEx. In general, you should focus on analyzing FedEx Stock price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.

FedEx Predictive Forecast Models

FedEx's time-series forecasting models is one of many FedEx's stock analysis techniques aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models are widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties, e.g., the mean and standard deviation, are not constant over time, but instead, these metrics vary over time. This non-stationary FedEx's historical data is usually called time series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the stock market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.
Some investors attempt to determine whether the market's mood is bullish or bearish by monitoring changes in market sentiment. Unlike more traditional methods such as technical analysis, investor sentiment usually refers to the aggregate attitude towards FedEx in the overall investment community. So, suppose investors can accurately measure the market's sentiment. In that case, they can use it for their benefit. For example, some tools to gauge market sentiment could be utilized using contrarian indexes, FedEx's short interest history, or implied volatility extrapolated from FedEx options trading.

Additional Information and Resources on Investing in FedEx Stock

When determining whether FedEx offers a strong return on investment in its stock, a comprehensive analysis is essential. The process typically begins with a thorough review of FedEx's financial statements, including income statements, balance sheets, and cash flow statements, to assess its financial health. Key financial ratios are used to gauge profitability, efficiency, and growth potential of Fedex Stock. Outlined below are crucial reports that will aid in making a well-informed decision on Fedex Stock:
Check out FedEx Backtesting, FedEx Valuation, FedEx Correlation, FedEx Hype Analysis, FedEx Volatility, FedEx History as well as FedEx Performance.
For information on how to trade FedEx Stock refer to our How to Trade FedEx Stock guide.
You can also try the Positions Ratings module to determine portfolio positions ratings based on digital equity recommendations. Macroaxis instant position ratings are based on combination of fundamental analysis and risk-adjusted market performance.
Please note, there is a significant difference between FedEx's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if FedEx is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, FedEx's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.