First Foundation Stock Probability of Future Stock Price Finishing Over 11.76
| FFWM Stock | USD 7.85 0.16 2.00% |
Closest to current price First long CALL Option Payoff at Expiration
First |
First Foundation Target Price Odds to finish over 11.76
The tendency of First Stock price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
| Current Price | Horizon | Target Price | Odds to move over $ 11.76 or more in 90 days |
| 7.85 | 90 days | 11.76 | near 1 |
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of First Foundation to move over $ 11.76 or more in 90 days from now is near 1 (This First Foundation probability density function shows the probability of First Stock to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) . Probability of First Foundation price to stay between its current price of $ 7.85 and $ 11.76 at the end of the 90-day period is about 12.7 .
Given the investment horizon of 90 days the stock has the beta coefficient of 3.1 . This usually indicates as the benchmark fluctuates upward, the company is expected to outperform it on average. However, if the benchmark returns are projected to be negative, First Foundation will likely underperform. Additionally First Foundation has a negative alpha, implying that the risk taken by holding this instrument is not justified. The company is significantly underperforming the Dow Jones Industrial. First Foundation Price Density |
| Price |
Predictive Modules for First Foundation
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as First Foundation. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of First Foundation's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
First Foundation Risk Indicators
For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. First Foundation is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the First Foundation's value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold First Foundation, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of First Foundation within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.α | Alpha over Dow Jones | -0.09 | |
β | Beta against Dow Jones | 3.10 | |
σ | Overall volatility | 0.64 | |
Ir | Information ratio | 0.03 |
First Foundation Alerts and Suggestions
In today's market, stock alerts give investors the competitive edge they need to time the market and increase returns. Checking the ongoing alerts of First Foundation for significant developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Suggestions and notifications for First Foundation can help investors quickly react to important events or material changes in technical or fundamental conditions and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.| First Foundation had very high historical volatility over the last 90 days | |
| First Foundation has high likelihood to experience some financial distress in the next 2 years | |
| The company reported the previous year's revenue of 174.85 M. Net Loss for the year was (199.06 M) with profit before overhead, payroll, taxes, and interest of 366.39 M. | |
| First Foundation has a poor financial position based on the latest SEC disclosures | |
| Over 78.0% of the company shares are owned by institutional investors | |
| Latest headline from businesswire.com: First Foundation Inc. Announces Retirement of CEO Scott F. Kavanaugh and Appointment of Thomas C. Shafer as Successor |
First Foundation Price Density Drivers
Market volatility will typically increase when nervous long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the market lower. The future price of First Stock often depends not only on the future outlook of the current and potential First Foundation's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. First Foundation's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 56.4 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 2 B |
First Foundation Technical Analysis
First Foundation's future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. First Stock technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of First Foundation. In general, you should focus on analyzing First Stock price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.
First Foundation Predictive Forecast Models
First Foundation's time-series forecasting models is one of many First Foundation's stock analysis techniques aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models are widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties, e.g., the mean and standard deviation, are not constant over time, but instead, these metrics vary over time. This non-stationary First Foundation's historical data is usually called time series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the stock market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.
Things to note about First Foundation
Checking the ongoing alerts about First Foundation for important developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Our stock alerts and notifications screener for First Foundation help investors to be notified of important events, changes in technical or fundamental conditions, and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
| First Foundation had very high historical volatility over the last 90 days | |
| First Foundation has high likelihood to experience some financial distress in the next 2 years | |
| The company reported the previous year's revenue of 174.85 M. Net Loss for the year was (199.06 M) with profit before overhead, payroll, taxes, and interest of 366.39 M. | |
| First Foundation has a poor financial position based on the latest SEC disclosures | |
| Over 78.0% of the company shares are owned by institutional investors | |
| Latest headline from businesswire.com: First Foundation Inc. Announces Retirement of CEO Scott F. Kavanaugh and Appointment of Thomas C. Shafer as Successor |
Check out First Foundation Backtesting, First Foundation Valuation, First Foundation Correlation, First Foundation Hype Analysis, First Foundation Volatility, First Foundation History as well as First Foundation Performance. To learn how to invest in First Stock, please use our How to Invest in First Foundation guide.You can also try the Earnings Calls module to check upcoming earnings announcements updated hourly across public exchanges.
Is Regional Banks space expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of First Foundation. If investors know First will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about First Foundation listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Quarterly Earnings Growth (0.93) | Dividend Share 0.01 | Earnings Share (1.26) | Revenue Per Share 1.829 | Quarterly Revenue Growth (0.03) |
The market value of First Foundation is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of First that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of First Foundation's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is First Foundation's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because First Foundation's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect First Foundation's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between First Foundation's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if First Foundation is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, First Foundation's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.