First Industrial Realty Stock Probability of Future Stock Price Finishing Under 45.38

FR Stock  USD 52.42  0.34  0.64%   
First Industrial's implied volatility is one of the determining factors in the pricing options written on First Industrial Realty. Implied volatility approximates the future value of First Industrial based on the option's current value. Options with high implied volatility have higher premiums and can be used to hedge the downside of investing in First Industrial Realty over a specific time period. For example, FR Option Call 20-12-2024 50 is a CALL option contract on First Industrial's common stock with a strick price of 50.0 expiring on 2024-12-20. The contract was last traded on 2024-10-10 at 12:07:52 for $5.5 and, as of today, has 16 days remaining before the expiration. The option is currently trading at a bid price of $1.5, and an ask price of $6.4. The implied volatility as of the 4th of December is 16.0. View All First options

Closest to current price First long CALL Option Payoff at Expiration

First Industrial's future price is the expected price of First Industrial instrument. It is based on its current growth rate as well as the projected cash flow expected by the investors. This tool provides a mechanism to make assumptions about the upside potential and downside risk of First Industrial Realty performance during a given time horizon utilizing its historical volatility. Check out First Industrial Backtesting, First Industrial Valuation, First Industrial Correlation, First Industrial Hype Analysis, First Industrial Volatility, First Industrial History as well as First Industrial Performance.
  
At this time, First Industrial's Price To Sales Ratio is relatively stable compared to the past year. As of 12/04/2024, Price Earnings Ratio is likely to grow to 26.62, while Price To Operating Cash Flows Ratio is likely to drop 12.10. Please specify First Industrial's target price for which you would like First Industrial odds to be computed.

First Industrial Target Price Odds to finish below 45.38

The tendency of First Stock price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
Current PriceHorizonTarget PriceOdds to drop to $ 45.38  or more in 90 days
 52.42 90 days 45.38 
near 1
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of First Industrial to drop to $ 45.38  or more in 90 days from now is near 1 (This First Industrial Realty probability density function shows the probability of First Stock to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) . Probability of First Industrial Realty price to stay between $ 45.38  and its current price of $52.42 at the end of the 90-day period is about 5.67 .
Allowing for the 90-day total investment horizon First Industrial has a beta of 0.44. This usually indicates as returns on the market go up, First Industrial average returns are expected to increase less than the benchmark. However, during the bear market, the loss on holding First Industrial Realty will be expected to be much smaller as well. Additionally First Industrial Realty has a negative alpha, implying that the risk taken by holding this instrument is not justified. The company is significantly underperforming the Dow Jones Industrial.
   First Industrial Price Density   
       Price  

Predictive Modules for First Industrial

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as First Industrial Realty. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimatedHigh
51.6852.7153.74
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowRealHigh
47.4854.8555.88
Details
Naive
Forecast
LowNextHigh
52.0953.1254.15
Details
16 Analysts
Consensus
LowTargetHigh
51.1056.1562.33
Details

First Industrial Risk Indicators

For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. First Industrial is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the First Industrial's value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold First Industrial Realty, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of First Industrial within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.
α
Alpha over Dow Jones
-0.15
β
Beta against Dow Jones0.44
σ
Overall volatility
1.27
Ir
Information ratio -0.2

First Industrial Alerts and Suggestions

In today's market, stock alerts give investors the competitive edge they need to time the market and increase returns. Checking the ongoing alerts of First Industrial for significant developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Suggestions and notifications for First Industrial Realty can help investors quickly react to important events or material changes in technical or fundamental conditions and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
First Industrial generated a negative expected return over the last 90 days
First Industrial has a strong financial position based on the latest SEC filings
Over 98.0% of the company shares are owned by institutional investors
On 21st of October 2024 First Industrial paid $ 0.37 per share dividend to its current shareholders
Latest headline from prnewswire.com: NEXGEN PACKAGING UND SEAMAN PAPER BIETEN GEMEINSAM EIN DYNAMISCHES PORTFOLIO AN PLASTIKFREIEN LSUNGEN FR DEN EINZELHANDEL, DIE BEKLEIDUNGS- UND SCHUHINDUSTRIE

First Industrial Price Density Drivers

Market volatility will typically increase when nervous long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the market lower. The future price of First Stock often depends not only on the future outlook of the current and potential First Industrial's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. First Industrial's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
Common Stock Shares Outstanding132.3 M
Cash And Short Term Investments43.8 M

First Industrial Technical Analysis

First Industrial's future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. First Stock technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of First Industrial Realty. In general, you should focus on analyzing First Stock price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.

First Industrial Predictive Forecast Models

First Industrial's time-series forecasting models is one of many First Industrial's stock analysis techniques aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models are widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties, e.g., the mean and standard deviation, are not constant over time, but instead, these metrics vary over time. This non-stationary First Industrial's historical data is usually called time series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the stock market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.

Things to note about First Industrial Realty

Checking the ongoing alerts about First Industrial for important developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Our stock alerts and notifications screener for First Industrial Realty help investors to be notified of important events, changes in technical or fundamental conditions, and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
First Industrial generated a negative expected return over the last 90 days
First Industrial has a strong financial position based on the latest SEC filings
Over 98.0% of the company shares are owned by institutional investors
On 21st of October 2024 First Industrial paid $ 0.37 per share dividend to its current shareholders
Latest headline from prnewswire.com: NEXGEN PACKAGING UND SEAMAN PAPER BIETEN GEMEINSAM EIN DYNAMISCHES PORTFOLIO AN PLASTIKFREIEN LSUNGEN FR DEN EINZELHANDEL, DIE BEKLEIDUNGS- UND SCHUHINDUSTRIE

Additional Tools for First Stock Analysis

When running First Industrial's price analysis, check to measure First Industrial's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy First Industrial is operating at the current time. Most of First Industrial's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of First Industrial's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move First Industrial's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of First Industrial to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.