Smartfren Telecom (Indonesia) Probability of Future Stock Price Finishing Under 16.15
| FREN Stock | IDR 23.00 1.00 4.17% |
Smartfren |
Smartfren Telecom Target Price Odds to finish below 16.15
The tendency of Smartfren Stock price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
| Current Price | Horizon | Target Price | Odds to drop to 16.15 or more in 90 days |
| 23.00 | 90 days | 16.15 | near 1 |
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of Smartfren Telecom to drop to 16.15 or more in 90 days from now is near 1 (This Smartfren Telecom Tbk probability density function shows the probability of Smartfren Stock to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) . Probability of Smartfren Telecom Tbk price to stay between 16.15 and its current price of 23.0 at the end of the 90-day period is roughly 2.02 .
Assuming the 90 days trading horizon Smartfren Telecom Tbk has a beta of -0.73. This usually indicates as returns on the benchmark increase, returns on holding Smartfren Telecom are expected to decrease at a much lower rate. During a bear market, however, Smartfren Telecom Tbk is likely to outperform the market. Additionally Smartfren Telecom Tbk has a negative alpha, implying that the risk taken by holding this instrument is not justified. The company is significantly underperforming the Dow Jones Industrial. Smartfren Telecom Price Density |
| Price |
Predictive Modules for Smartfren Telecom
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Smartfren Telecom Tbk. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Smartfren Telecom Risk Indicators
For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. Smartfren Telecom is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the Smartfren Telecom's value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold Smartfren Telecom Tbk, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of Smartfren Telecom within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.α | Alpha over Dow Jones | -0.38 | |
β | Beta against Dow Jones | -0.73 | |
σ | Overall volatility | 1.64 | |
Ir | Information ratio | -0.12 |
Smartfren Telecom Alerts and Suggestions
In today's market, stock alerts give investors the competitive edge they need to time the market and increase returns. Checking the ongoing alerts of Smartfren Telecom for significant developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Suggestions and notifications for Smartfren Telecom Tbk can help investors quickly react to important events or material changes in technical or fundamental conditions and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.| Smartfren Telecom generated a negative expected return over the last 90 days | |
| Smartfren Telecom has high historical volatility and very poor performance | |
| Smartfren Telecom has high likelihood to experience some financial distress in the next 2 years | |
| The company reported the revenue of 10.46 T. Net Loss for the year was (435.33 B) with profit before overhead, payroll, taxes, and interest of 6.63 T. | |
| About 64.0% of the company shares are held by company insiders |
Smartfren Telecom Price Density Drivers
Market volatility will typically increase when nervous long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the market lower. The future price of Smartfren Stock often depends not only on the future outlook of the current and potential Smartfren Telecom's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Smartfren Telecom's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 308.1 B | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 463.2 B |
Smartfren Telecom Technical Analysis
Smartfren Telecom's future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. Smartfren Stock technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of Smartfren Telecom Tbk. In general, you should focus on analyzing Smartfren Stock price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.
Smartfren Telecom Predictive Forecast Models
Smartfren Telecom's time-series forecasting models is one of many Smartfren Telecom's stock analysis techniques aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models are widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties, e.g., the mean and standard deviation, are not constant over time, but instead, these metrics vary over time. This non-stationary Smartfren Telecom's historical data is usually called time series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the stock market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.
Things to note about Smartfren Telecom Tbk
Checking the ongoing alerts about Smartfren Telecom for important developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Our stock alerts and notifications screener for Smartfren Telecom Tbk help investors to be notified of important events, changes in technical or fundamental conditions, and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
| Smartfren Telecom generated a negative expected return over the last 90 days | |
| Smartfren Telecom has high historical volatility and very poor performance | |
| Smartfren Telecom has high likelihood to experience some financial distress in the next 2 years | |
| The company reported the revenue of 10.46 T. Net Loss for the year was (435.33 B) with profit before overhead, payroll, taxes, and interest of 6.63 T. | |
| About 64.0% of the company shares are held by company insiders |
Other Information on Investing in Smartfren Stock
Smartfren Telecom financial ratios help investors to determine whether Smartfren Stock is cheap or expensive when compared to a particular measure, such as profits or enterprise value. In other words, they help investors to determine the cost of investment in Smartfren with respect to the benefits of owning Smartfren Telecom security.