1st Summit Bancorp Stock Probability of Future Pink Sheet Price Finishing Under 21.46
| FSMK Stock | USD 25.60 0.20 0.79% |
1ST |
1ST SUMMIT Target Price Odds to finish below 21.46
The tendency of 1ST Pink Sheet price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
| Current Price | Horizon | Target Price | Odds to drop to $ 21.46 or more in 90 days |
| 25.60 | 90 days | 21.46 | near 1 |
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of 1ST SUMMIT to drop to $ 21.46 or more in 90 days from now is near 1 (This 1ST SUMMIT BANCORP probability density function shows the probability of 1ST Pink Sheet to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) . Probability of 1ST SUMMIT BANCORP price to stay between $ 21.46 and its current price of $25.6 at the end of the 90-day period is about 7.16 .
Given the investment horizon of 90 days 1ST SUMMIT BANCORP has a beta of -0.28. This usually indicates as returns on the benchmark increase, returns on holding 1ST SUMMIT are expected to decrease at a much lower rate. During a bear market, however, 1ST SUMMIT BANCORP is likely to outperform the market. Additionally 1ST SUMMIT BANCORP has an alpha of 0.0524, implying that it can generate a 0.0524 percent excess return over Dow Jones Industrial after adjusting for the inherited market risk (beta). 1ST SUMMIT Price Density |
| Price |
Predictive Modules for 1ST SUMMIT
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as 1ST SUMMIT BANCORP. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the pink sheet market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the pink sheet market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.1ST SUMMIT Risk Indicators
For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. 1ST SUMMIT is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the 1ST SUMMIT's value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold 1ST SUMMIT BANCORP, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of 1ST SUMMIT within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.α | Alpha over Dow Jones | 0.05 | |
β | Beta against Dow Jones | -0.28 | |
σ | Overall volatility | 0.82 | |
Ir | Information ratio | -0.06 |
1ST SUMMIT Price Density Drivers
Market volatility will typically increase when nervous long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the market lower. The future price of 1ST Pink Sheet often depends not only on the future outlook of the current and potential 1ST SUMMIT's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. 1ST SUMMIT's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Dividend Yield | 0.0125 | |
| Forward Annual Dividend Rate | 0.86 | |
| Shares Float | 1.8 M |
1ST SUMMIT Technical Analysis
1ST SUMMIT's future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. 1ST Pink Sheet technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of 1ST SUMMIT BANCORP. In general, you should focus on analyzing 1ST Pink Sheet price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.
1ST SUMMIT Predictive Forecast Models
1ST SUMMIT's time-series forecasting models is one of many 1ST SUMMIT's pink sheet analysis techniques aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models are widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties, e.g., the mean and standard deviation, are not constant over time, but instead, these metrics vary over time. This non-stationary 1ST SUMMIT's historical data is usually called time series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the pink sheet market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.
Some investors attempt to determine whether the market's mood is bullish or bearish by monitoring changes in market sentiment. Unlike more traditional methods such as technical analysis, investor sentiment usually refers to the aggregate attitude towards 1ST SUMMIT in the overall investment community. So, suppose investors can accurately measure the market's sentiment. In that case, they can use it for their benefit. For example, some tools to gauge market sentiment could be utilized using contrarian indexes, 1ST SUMMIT's short interest history, or implied volatility extrapolated from 1ST SUMMIT options trading.
Other Information on Investing in 1ST Pink Sheet
1ST SUMMIT financial ratios help investors to determine whether 1ST Pink Sheet is cheap or expensive when compared to a particular measure, such as profits or enterprise value. In other words, they help investors to determine the cost of investment in 1ST with respect to the benefits of owning 1ST SUMMIT security.