Gear4music (Holdings) (UK) Probability of Future Stock Price Finishing Under 170.17
| G4M Stock | 170.00 5.00 3.03% |
Gear4music |
Gear4music (Holdings) Target Price Odds to finish below 170.17
The tendency of Gear4music Stock price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
| Current Price | Horizon | Target Price | Odds to stay under 170.17 after 90 days |
| 170.00 | 90 days | 170.17 | about 47.67 |
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of Gear4music (Holdings) to stay under 170.17 after 90 days from now is about 47.67 (This Gear4music Plc probability density function shows the probability of Gear4music Stock to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) . Probability of Gear4music (Holdings) price to stay between its current price of 170.00 and 170.17 at the end of the 90-day period is near 1 .
Assuming the 90 days trading horizon Gear4music (Holdings) has a beta of 0.0545. This usually indicates as returns on the market go up, Gear4music (Holdings) average returns are expected to increase less than the benchmark. However, during the bear market, the loss on holding Gear4music Plc will be expected to be much smaller as well. Additionally Gear4music Plc has a negative alpha, implying that the risk taken by holding this instrument is not justified. The company is significantly underperforming the Dow Jones Industrial. Gear4music (Holdings) Price Density |
| Price |
Predictive Modules for Gear4music (Holdings)
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Gear4music (Holdings). Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Gear4music (Holdings) Risk Indicators
For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. Gear4music (Holdings) is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the Gear4music (Holdings)'s value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold Gear4music Plc, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of Gear4music (Holdings) within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.α | Alpha over Dow Jones | -0.16 | |
β | Beta against Dow Jones | 0.05 | |
σ | Overall volatility | 10.00 | |
Ir | Information ratio | -0.13 |
Gear4music (Holdings) Alerts and Suggestions
In today's market, stock alerts give investors the competitive edge they need to time the market and increase returns. Checking the ongoing alerts of Gear4music (Holdings) for significant developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Suggestions and notifications for Gear4music (Holdings) can help investors quickly react to important events or material changes in technical or fundamental conditions and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.| Gear4music (Holdings) generated a negative expected return over the last 90 days | |
| Gear4music (Holdings) is unlikely to experience financial distress in the next 2 years | |
| About 25.0% of the company shares are held by company insiders | |
| Latest headline from news.google.com: FTSE 100 Live Stocks to surge, Imperial Brands reports, Mulberry losses escalate - Proactive Investors Australia |
Gear4music (Holdings) Price Density Drivers
Market volatility will typically increase when nervous long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the market lower. The future price of Gear4music Stock often depends not only on the future outlook of the current and potential Gear4music (Holdings)'s investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Gear4music (Holdings)'s indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 22.1 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 4.7 M |
Gear4music (Holdings) Technical Analysis
Gear4music (Holdings)'s future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. Gear4music Stock technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of Gear4music Plc. In general, you should focus on analyzing Gear4music Stock price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.
Gear4music (Holdings) Predictive Forecast Models
Gear4music (Holdings)'s time-series forecasting models is one of many Gear4music (Holdings)'s stock analysis techniques aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models are widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties, e.g., the mean and standard deviation, are not constant over time, but instead, these metrics vary over time. This non-stationary Gear4music (Holdings)'s historical data is usually called time series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the stock market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.
Things to note about Gear4music (Holdings)
Checking the ongoing alerts about Gear4music (Holdings) for important developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Our stock alerts and notifications screener for Gear4music (Holdings) help investors to be notified of important events, changes in technical or fundamental conditions, and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
| Gear4music (Holdings) generated a negative expected return over the last 90 days | |
| Gear4music (Holdings) is unlikely to experience financial distress in the next 2 years | |
| About 25.0% of the company shares are held by company insiders | |
| Latest headline from news.google.com: FTSE 100 Live Stocks to surge, Imperial Brands reports, Mulberry losses escalate - Proactive Investors Australia |
Other Information on Investing in Gear4music Stock
Gear4music (Holdings) financial ratios help investors to determine whether Gear4music Stock is cheap or expensive when compared to a particular measure, such as profits or enterprise value. In other words, they help investors to determine the cost of investment in Gear4music with respect to the benefits of owning Gear4music (Holdings) security.