Naturgy Energy (Germany) Probability of Future Stock Price Finishing Under 20.59
| GAN Stock | EUR 23.22 0.26 1.13% |
Naturgy |
Naturgy Energy Target Price Odds to finish below 20.59
The tendency of Naturgy Stock price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
| Current Price | Horizon | Target Price | Odds to drop to € 20.59 or more in 90 days |
| 23.22 | 90 days | 20.59 | near 1 |
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of Naturgy Energy to drop to € 20.59 or more in 90 days from now is near 1 (This Naturgy Energy Group probability density function shows the probability of Naturgy Stock to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) . Probability of Naturgy Energy Group price to stay between € 20.59 and its current price of €23.22 at the end of the 90-day period is about 89.33 .
Assuming the 90 days horizon Naturgy Energy Group has a beta of -0.21. This usually indicates as returns on the benchmark increase, returns on holding Naturgy Energy are expected to decrease at a much lower rate. During a bear market, however, Naturgy Energy Group is likely to outperform the market. Additionally Naturgy Energy Group has an alpha of 0.1142, implying that it can generate a 0.11 percent excess return over Dow Jones Industrial after adjusting for the inherited market risk (beta). Naturgy Energy Price Density |
| Price |
Predictive Modules for Naturgy Energy
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Naturgy Energy Group. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Naturgy Energy Risk Indicators
For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. Naturgy Energy is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the Naturgy Energy's value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold Naturgy Energy Group, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of Naturgy Energy within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.α | Alpha over Dow Jones | 0.11 | |
β | Beta against Dow Jones | -0.21 | |
σ | Overall volatility | 0.53 | |
Ir | Information ratio | 0 |
Naturgy Energy Alerts and Suggestions
In today's market, stock alerts give investors the competitive edge they need to time the market and increase returns. Checking the ongoing alerts of Naturgy Energy for significant developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Suggestions and notifications for Naturgy Energy Group can help investors quickly react to important events or material changes in technical or fundamental conditions and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.| Naturgy Energy Group has high financial leverage indicating that it may have difficulties to generate enough cash to satisfy its financial obligations | |
| About 45.0% of the company shares are held by company insiders |
Naturgy Energy Price Density Drivers
Market volatility will typically increase when nervous long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the market lower. The future price of Naturgy Stock often depends not only on the future outlook of the current and potential Naturgy Energy's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Naturgy Energy's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 960.9 M |
Naturgy Energy Technical Analysis
Naturgy Energy's future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. Naturgy Stock technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of Naturgy Energy Group. In general, you should focus on analyzing Naturgy Stock price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.
Naturgy Energy Predictive Forecast Models
Naturgy Energy's time-series forecasting models is one of many Naturgy Energy's stock analysis techniques aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models are widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties, e.g., the mean and standard deviation, are not constant over time, but instead, these metrics vary over time. This non-stationary Naturgy Energy's historical data is usually called time series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the stock market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.
Things to note about Naturgy Energy Group
Checking the ongoing alerts about Naturgy Energy for important developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Our stock alerts and notifications screener for Naturgy Energy Group help investors to be notified of important events, changes in technical or fundamental conditions, and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
| Naturgy Energy Group has high financial leverage indicating that it may have difficulties to generate enough cash to satisfy its financial obligations | |
| About 45.0% of the company shares are held by company insiders |
Other Information on Investing in Naturgy Stock
Naturgy Energy financial ratios help investors to determine whether Naturgy Stock is cheap or expensive when compared to a particular measure, such as profits or enterprise value. In other words, they help investors to determine the cost of investment in Naturgy with respect to the benefits of owning Naturgy Energy security.