Gold Bullion (UK) Probability of Future Stock Price Finishing Under 19,306
| GBSS Stock | 19,174 205.00 1.08% |
Gold |
Gold Bullion Target Price Odds to finish below 19,306
The tendency of Gold Stock price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
| Current Price | Horizon | Target Price | Odds to move below current price in 90 days |
| 19,174 | 90 days | 19,174 | about 65.87 |
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of Gold Bullion to move below current price in 90 days from now is about 65.87 (This Gold Bullion Securities probability density function shows the probability of Gold Stock to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) .
Assuming the 90 days trading horizon Gold Bullion Securities has a beta of -0.0474. This usually indicates as returns on the benchmark increase, returns on holding Gold Bullion are expected to decrease at a much lower rate. During a bear market, however, Gold Bullion Securities is likely to outperform the market. Additionally Gold Bullion Securities has an alpha of 0.082, implying that it can generate a 0.082 percent excess return over Dow Jones Industrial after adjusting for the inherited market risk (beta). Gold Bullion Price Density |
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Predictive Modules for Gold Bullion
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Gold Bullion Securities. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Gold Bullion Risk Indicators
For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. Gold Bullion is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the Gold Bullion's value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold Gold Bullion Securities, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of Gold Bullion within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.α | Alpha over Dow Jones | 0.08 | |
β | Beta against Dow Jones | -0.05 | |
σ | Overall volatility | 439.70 | |
Ir | Information ratio | 0.06 |
Gold Bullion Technical Analysis
Gold Bullion's future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. Gold Stock technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of Gold Bullion Securities. In general, you should focus on analyzing Gold Stock price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.
Gold Bullion Predictive Forecast Models
Gold Bullion's time-series forecasting models is one of many Gold Bullion's stock analysis techniques aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models are widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties, e.g., the mean and standard deviation, are not constant over time, but instead, these metrics vary over time. This non-stationary Gold Bullion's historical data is usually called time series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the stock market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.
Some investors attempt to determine whether the market's mood is bullish or bearish by monitoring changes in market sentiment. Unlike more traditional methods such as technical analysis, investor sentiment usually refers to the aggregate attitude towards Gold Bullion in the overall investment community. So, suppose investors can accurately measure the market's sentiment. In that case, they can use it for their benefit. For example, some tools to gauge market sentiment could be utilized using contrarian indexes, Gold Bullion's short interest history, or implied volatility extrapolated from Gold Bullion options trading.
Additional Tools for Gold Stock Analysis
When running Gold Bullion's price analysis, check to measure Gold Bullion's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Gold Bullion is operating at the current time. Most of Gold Bullion's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Gold Bullion's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Gold Bullion's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Gold Bullion to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.