Grupo Carso (Mexico) Probability of Future Stock Price Finishing Under 118.47
| GCARSOA1 | MXN 117.82 3.28 2.71% |
Grupo |
Grupo Carso Target Price Odds to finish below 118.47
The tendency of Grupo Stock price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
| Current Price | Horizon | Target Price | Odds to stay under 118.47 after 90 days |
| 117.82 | 90 days | 118.47 | about 27.65 |
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of Grupo Carso to stay under 118.47 after 90 days from now is about 27.65 (This Grupo Carso SAB probability density function shows the probability of Grupo Stock to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) . Probability of Grupo Carso SAB price to stay between its current price of 117.82 and 118.47 at the end of the 90-day period is about 7.09 .
Assuming the 90 days trading horizon Grupo Carso SAB has a beta of -0.15. This usually indicates as returns on the benchmark increase, returns on holding Grupo Carso are expected to decrease at a much lower rate. During a bear market, however, Grupo Carso SAB is likely to outperform the market. Additionally Grupo Carso SAB has an alpha of 0.0447, implying that it can generate a 0.0447 percent excess return over Dow Jones Industrial after adjusting for the inherited market risk (beta). Grupo Carso Price Density |
| Price |
Predictive Modules for Grupo Carso
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Grupo Carso SAB. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Grupo Carso's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Grupo Carso Risk Indicators
For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. Grupo Carso is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the Grupo Carso's value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold Grupo Carso SAB, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of Grupo Carso within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.α | Alpha over Dow Jones | 0.04 | |
β | Beta against Dow Jones | -0.15 | |
σ | Overall volatility | 2.87 | |
Ir | Information ratio | -0.04 |
Grupo Carso Price Density Drivers
Market volatility will typically increase when nervous long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the market lower. The future price of Grupo Stock often depends not only on the future outlook of the current and potential Grupo Carso's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Grupo Carso's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 2.3 B |
Grupo Carso Technical Analysis
Grupo Carso's future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. Grupo Stock technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of Grupo Carso SAB. In general, you should focus on analyzing Grupo Stock price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.
Grupo Carso Predictive Forecast Models
Grupo Carso's time-series forecasting models is one of many Grupo Carso's stock analysis techniques aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models are widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties, e.g., the mean and standard deviation, are not constant over time, but instead, these metrics vary over time. This non-stationary Grupo Carso's historical data is usually called time series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the stock market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.
Some investors attempt to determine whether the market's mood is bullish or bearish by monitoring changes in market sentiment. Unlike more traditional methods such as technical analysis, investor sentiment usually refers to the aggregate attitude towards Grupo Carso in the overall investment community. So, suppose investors can accurately measure the market's sentiment. In that case, they can use it for their benefit. For example, some tools to gauge market sentiment could be utilized using contrarian indexes, Grupo Carso's short interest history, or implied volatility extrapolated from Grupo Carso options trading.
Other Information on Investing in Grupo Stock
Grupo Carso financial ratios help investors to determine whether Grupo Stock is cheap or expensive when compared to a particular measure, such as profits or enterprise value. In other words, they help investors to determine the cost of investment in Grupo with respect to the benefits of owning Grupo Carso security.