Vaneck Gold Miners Etf Probability of Future Etf Price Finishing Under 39.02
| GDX Etf | USD 36.65 1.01 2.68% |
VanEck |
VanEck Gold Target Price Odds to finish below 39.02
The tendency of VanEck Etf price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
| Current Price | Horizon | Target Price | Odds to stay under $ 39.02 after 90 days |
| 36.65 | 90 days | 39.02 | about 43.34 |
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of VanEck Gold to stay under $ 39.02 after 90 days from now is about 43.34 (This VanEck Gold Miners probability density function shows the probability of VanEck Etf to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) . Probability of VanEck Gold Miners price to stay between its current price of $ 36.65 and $ 39.02 at the end of the 90-day period is about 34.86 .
Considering the 90-day investment horizon VanEck Gold Miners has a beta of -0.21. This usually indicates as returns on the benchmark increase, returns on holding VanEck Gold are expected to decrease at a much lower rate. During a bear market, however, VanEck Gold Miners is likely to outperform the market. Additionally VanEck Gold Miners has a negative alpha, implying that the risk taken by holding this instrument is not justified. The company is significantly underperforming the Dow Jones Industrial. VanEck Gold Price Density |
| Price |
Predictive Modules for VanEck Gold
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as VanEck Gold Miners. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the etf market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the etf market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of VanEck Gold's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
VanEck Gold Risk Indicators
For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. VanEck Gold is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the VanEck Gold's value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold VanEck Gold Miners, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of VanEck Gold within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.α | Alpha over Dow Jones | -0.07 | |
β | Beta against Dow Jones | -0.21 | |
σ | Overall volatility | 1.98 | |
Ir | Information ratio | -0.09 |
VanEck Gold Alerts and Suggestions
In today's market, stock alerts give investors the competitive edge they need to time the market and increase returns. Checking the ongoing alerts of VanEck Gold for significant developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Suggestions and notifications for VanEck Gold Miners can help investors quickly react to important events or material changes in technical or fundamental conditions and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.| VanEck Gold Miners generated a negative expected return over the last 90 days | |
| Latest headline from thelincolnianonline.com: Stevens Capital Management LP Has 4.05 Million Stock Holdings in VanEck Gold Miners ETF | |
| The fund retains 100.39% of its assets under management (AUM) in equities |
VanEck Gold Technical Analysis
VanEck Gold's future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. VanEck Etf technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of VanEck Gold Miners. In general, you should focus on analyzing VanEck Etf price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.
VanEck Gold Predictive Forecast Models
VanEck Gold's time-series forecasting models is one of many VanEck Gold's etf analysis techniques aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models are widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties, e.g., the mean and standard deviation, are not constant over time, but instead, these metrics vary over time. This non-stationary VanEck Gold's historical data is usually called time series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the etf market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.
Things to note about VanEck Gold Miners
Checking the ongoing alerts about VanEck Gold for important developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Our stock alerts and notifications screener for VanEck Gold Miners help investors to be notified of important events, changes in technical or fundamental conditions, and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
| VanEck Gold Miners generated a negative expected return over the last 90 days | |
| Latest headline from thelincolnianonline.com: Stevens Capital Management LP Has 4.05 Million Stock Holdings in VanEck Gold Miners ETF | |
| The fund retains 100.39% of its assets under management (AUM) in equities |
Check out VanEck Gold Backtesting, Portfolio Optimization, VanEck Gold Correlation, VanEck Gold Hype Analysis, VanEck Gold Volatility, VanEck Gold History as well as VanEck Gold Performance. You can also try the Performance Analysis module to check effects of mean-variance optimization against your current asset allocation.
The market value of VanEck Gold Miners is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of VanEck that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of VanEck Gold's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is VanEck Gold's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because VanEck Gold's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect VanEck Gold's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between VanEck Gold's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if VanEck Gold is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, VanEck Gold's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.