Great Elm Capital Stock Probability of Future Stock Price Finishing Over 13.84

GECC Stock  USD 10.43  0.03  0.29%   
Great Elm's future price is the expected price of Great Elm instrument. It is based on its current growth rate as well as the projected cash flow expected by the investors. This tool provides a mechanism to make assumptions about the upside potential and downside risk of Great Elm Capital performance during a given time horizon utilizing its historical volatility. Check out Great Elm Backtesting, Great Elm Valuation, Great Elm Correlation, Great Elm Hype Analysis, Great Elm Volatility, Great Elm History as well as Great Elm Performance.
  
At present, Great Elm's Price Book Value Ratio is projected to slightly decrease based on the last few years of reporting. The current year's Price To Operating Cash Flows Ratio is expected to grow to 3.31, whereas Price To Sales Ratio is forecasted to decline to 2.15. Please specify Great Elm's target price for which you would like Great Elm odds to be computed.

Great Elm Target Price Odds to finish over 13.84

The tendency of Great Stock price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
Current PriceHorizonTarget PriceOdds to move over $ 13.84  or more in 90 days
 10.43 90 days 13.84 
close to zero percent
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of Great Elm to move over $ 13.84  or more in 90 days from now is close to zero percent (This Great Elm Capital probability density function shows the probability of Great Stock to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) . Probability of Great Elm Capital price to stay between its current price of $ 10.43  and $ 13.84  at the end of the 90-day period is under 4.
Given the investment horizon of 90 days Great Elm has a beta of 0.42. This usually indicates as returns on the market go up, Great Elm average returns are expected to increase less than the benchmark. However, during the bear market, the loss on holding Great Elm Capital will be expected to be much smaller as well. Additionally Great Elm Capital has an alpha of 0.0555, implying that it can generate a 0.0555 percent excess return over Dow Jones Industrial after adjusting for the inherited market risk (beta).
   Great Elm Price Density   
       Price  

Predictive Modules for Great Elm

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Great Elm Capital. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Great Elm's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimatedHigh
9.3610.4311.50
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowRealHigh
9.0610.1311.20
Details
3 Analysts
Consensus
LowTargetHigh
9.1010.0011.10
Details
Earnings
Estimates (0)
LowProjected EPSHigh
0.350.350.35
Details

Great Elm Risk Indicators

For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. Great Elm is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the Great Elm's value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold Great Elm Capital, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of Great Elm within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.
α
Alpha over Dow Jones
0.06
β
Beta against Dow Jones0.42
σ
Overall volatility
0.18
Ir
Information ratio 0

Great Elm Alerts and Suggestions

In today's market, stock alerts give investors the competitive edge they need to time the market and increase returns. Checking the ongoing alerts of Great Elm for significant developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Suggestions and notifications for Great Elm Capital can help investors quickly react to important events or material changes in technical or fundamental conditions and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
Great Elm Capital currently holds 140.21 M in liabilities with Debt to Equity (D/E) ratio of 1.46, which is about average as compared to similar companies. Great Elm Capital has a current ratio of 0.09, indicating that it has a negative working capital and may not be able to pay financial obligations when due. Note, when we think about Great Elm's use of debt, we should always consider it together with its cash and equity.
About 43.0% of Great Elm shares are held by company insiders
Latest headline from seekingalpha.com: Great Elm Capital raises 13.2 million of equity at net asset value

Great Elm Price Density Drivers

Market volatility will typically increase when nervous long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the market lower. The future price of Great Stock often depends not only on the future outlook of the current and potential Great Elm's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Great Elm's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
Common Stock Shares Outstanding7.6 M
Cash And Short Term Investments953 K

Great Elm Technical Analysis

Great Elm's future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. Great Stock technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of Great Elm Capital. In general, you should focus on analyzing Great Stock price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.

Great Elm Predictive Forecast Models

Great Elm's time-series forecasting models is one of many Great Elm's stock analysis techniques aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models are widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties, e.g., the mean and standard deviation, are not constant over time, but instead, these metrics vary over time. This non-stationary Great Elm's historical data is usually called time series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the stock market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.

Things to note about Great Elm Capital

Checking the ongoing alerts about Great Elm for important developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Our stock alerts and notifications screener for Great Elm Capital help investors to be notified of important events, changes in technical or fundamental conditions, and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
Great Elm Capital currently holds 140.21 M in liabilities with Debt to Equity (D/E) ratio of 1.46, which is about average as compared to similar companies. Great Elm Capital has a current ratio of 0.09, indicating that it has a negative working capital and may not be able to pay financial obligations when due. Note, when we think about Great Elm's use of debt, we should always consider it together with its cash and equity.
About 43.0% of Great Elm shares are held by company insiders
Latest headline from seekingalpha.com: Great Elm Capital raises 13.2 million of equity at net asset value
When determining whether Great Elm Capital offers a strong return on investment in its stock, a comprehensive analysis is essential. The process typically begins with a thorough review of Great Elm's financial statements, including income statements, balance sheets, and cash flow statements, to assess its financial health. Key financial ratios are used to gauge profitability, efficiency, and growth potential of Great Elm Capital Stock. Outlined below are crucial reports that will aid in making a well-informed decision on Great Elm Capital Stock:
Is Asset Management & Custody Banks space expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Great Elm. If investors know Great will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Great Elm listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Quarterly Earnings Growth
(0.67)
Dividend Share
1.4
Earnings Share
0.74
Revenue Per Share
4.352
Quarterly Revenue Growth
0.276
The market value of Great Elm Capital is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Great that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Great Elm's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Great Elm's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Great Elm's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Great Elm's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Great Elm's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if Great Elm is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Great Elm's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.