Rio Paranapanema (Brazil) Probability of Future Stock Price Finishing Over 33.06
| GEPA3 Stock | BRL 28.52 1.98 6.49% |
Rio |
Rio Paranapanema Target Price Odds to finish over 33.06
The tendency of Rio Stock price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
| Current Price | Horizon | Target Price | Odds to move over R$ 33.06 or more in 90 days |
| 28.52 | 90 days | 33.06 | roughly 2.64 |
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of Rio Paranapanema to move over R$ 33.06 or more in 90 days from now is roughly 2.64 (This Rio Paranapanema Energia probability density function shows the probability of Rio Stock to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) . Probability of Rio Paranapanema Energia price to stay between its current price of R$ 28.52 and R$ 33.06 at the end of the 90-day period is about 57.47 .
Assuming the 90 days trading horizon Rio Paranapanema Energia has a beta of -1.45. This usually indicates as returns on its benchmark rise, returns on holding Rio Paranapanema Energia are expected to decrease by similarly larger amounts. On the other hand, during market turmoils, Rio Paranapanema is expected to outperform its benchmark. Additionally Rio Paranapanema Energia has an alpha of 0.4435, implying that it can generate a 0.44 percent excess return over Dow Jones Industrial after adjusting for the inherited market risk (beta). Rio Paranapanema Price Density |
| Price |
Predictive Modules for Rio Paranapanema
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Rio Paranapanema Energia. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Rio Paranapanema Risk Indicators
For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. Rio Paranapanema is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the Rio Paranapanema's value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold Rio Paranapanema Energia, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of Rio Paranapanema within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.α | Alpha over Dow Jones | 0.44 | |
β | Beta against Dow Jones | -1.45 | |
σ | Overall volatility | 2.07 | |
Ir | Information ratio | 0.04 |
Rio Paranapanema Alerts and Suggestions
In today's market, stock alerts give investors the competitive edge they need to time the market and increase returns. Checking the ongoing alerts of Rio Paranapanema for significant developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Suggestions and notifications for Rio Paranapanema Energia can help investors quickly react to important events or material changes in technical or fundamental conditions and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.| Rio Paranapanema had very high historical volatility over the last 90 days | |
| Rio Paranapanema has high likelihood to experience some financial distress in the next 2 years | |
| Rio Paranapanema has high financial leverage indicating that it may have difficulties to generate enough cash to satisfy its financial obligations | |
| Rio Paranapanema Energia has accumulated 911.96 M in total debt with debt to equity ratio (D/E) of 88.9, indicating the company may have difficulties to generate enough cash to satisfy its financial obligations. Rio Paranapanema Energia has a current ratio of 0.93, indicating that it has a negative working capital and may not be able to pay financial obligations in time and when they become due. Debt can assist Rio Paranapanema until it has trouble settling it off, either with new capital or with free cash flow. So, Rio Paranapanema's shareholders could walk away with nothing if the company can't fulfill its legal obligations to repay debt. However, a more frequent occurrence is when companies like Rio Paranapanema Energia sell additional shares at bargain prices, diluting existing shareholders. Debt, in this case, can be an excellent and much better tool for Rio to invest in growth at high rates of return. When we think about Rio Paranapanema's use of debt, we should always consider it together with cash and equity. | |
| The entity reported the revenue of 1.35 B. Net Loss for the year was (8.8 M) with profit before overhead, payroll, taxes, and interest of 512.81 M. | |
| Rio Paranapanema Energia has accumulated about 180.67 M in cash with (808.86 M) of positive cash flow from operations. This results in cash-per-share (CPS) ratio of 11.33. | |
| Roughly 99.0% of Rio Paranapanema shares are held by company insiders |
Rio Paranapanema Price Density Drivers
Market volatility will typically increase when nervous long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the market lower. The future price of Rio Stock often depends not only on the future outlook of the current and potential Rio Paranapanema's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Rio Paranapanema's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 94.4 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 185 M |
Rio Paranapanema Technical Analysis
Rio Paranapanema's future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. Rio Stock technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of Rio Paranapanema Energia. In general, you should focus on analyzing Rio Stock price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.
Rio Paranapanema Predictive Forecast Models
Rio Paranapanema's time-series forecasting models is one of many Rio Paranapanema's stock analysis techniques aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models are widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties, e.g., the mean and standard deviation, are not constant over time, but instead, these metrics vary over time. This non-stationary Rio Paranapanema's historical data is usually called time series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the stock market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.
Things to note about Rio Paranapanema Energia
Checking the ongoing alerts about Rio Paranapanema for important developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Our stock alerts and notifications screener for Rio Paranapanema Energia help investors to be notified of important events, changes in technical or fundamental conditions, and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
| Rio Paranapanema had very high historical volatility over the last 90 days | |
| Rio Paranapanema has high likelihood to experience some financial distress in the next 2 years | |
| Rio Paranapanema has high financial leverage indicating that it may have difficulties to generate enough cash to satisfy its financial obligations | |
| Rio Paranapanema Energia has accumulated 911.96 M in total debt with debt to equity ratio (D/E) of 88.9, indicating the company may have difficulties to generate enough cash to satisfy its financial obligations. Rio Paranapanema Energia has a current ratio of 0.93, indicating that it has a negative working capital and may not be able to pay financial obligations in time and when they become due. Debt can assist Rio Paranapanema until it has trouble settling it off, either with new capital or with free cash flow. So, Rio Paranapanema's shareholders could walk away with nothing if the company can't fulfill its legal obligations to repay debt. However, a more frequent occurrence is when companies like Rio Paranapanema Energia sell additional shares at bargain prices, diluting existing shareholders. Debt, in this case, can be an excellent and much better tool for Rio to invest in growth at high rates of return. When we think about Rio Paranapanema's use of debt, we should always consider it together with cash and equity. | |
| The entity reported the revenue of 1.35 B. Net Loss for the year was (8.8 M) with profit before overhead, payroll, taxes, and interest of 512.81 M. | |
| Rio Paranapanema Energia has accumulated about 180.67 M in cash with (808.86 M) of positive cash flow from operations. This results in cash-per-share (CPS) ratio of 11.33. | |
| Roughly 99.0% of Rio Paranapanema shares are held by company insiders |
Additional Tools for Rio Stock Analysis
When running Rio Paranapanema's price analysis, check to measure Rio Paranapanema's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Rio Paranapanema is operating at the current time. Most of Rio Paranapanema's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Rio Paranapanema's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Rio Paranapanema's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Rio Paranapanema to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.