Gerdau SA (Mexico) Probability of Future Stock Price Finishing Under 62.31
| GGBN Stock | MXN 68.01 0.00 0.00% |
Gerdau |
Gerdau SA Target Price Odds to finish below 62.31
The tendency of Gerdau Stock price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
| Current Price | Horizon | Target Price | Odds to drop to 62.31 or more in 90 days |
| 68.01 | 90 days | 62.31 | near 1 |
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of Gerdau SA to drop to 62.31 or more in 90 days from now is near 1 (This Gerdau SA probability density function shows the probability of Gerdau Stock to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) . Probability of Gerdau SA price to stay between 62.31 and its current price of 68.01 at the end of the 90-day period is about 44.4 .
Assuming the 90 days trading horizon Gerdau SA has a beta of -0.2. This usually indicates as returns on the benchmark increase, returns on holding Gerdau SA are expected to decrease at a much lower rate. During a bear market, however, Gerdau SA is likely to outperform the market. Additionally Gerdau SA has an alpha of 0.0796, implying that it can generate a 0.0796 percent excess return over Dow Jones Industrial after adjusting for the inherited market risk (beta). Gerdau SA Price Density |
| Price |
Predictive Modules for Gerdau SA
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Gerdau SA. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Gerdau SA Risk Indicators
For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. Gerdau SA is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the Gerdau SA's value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold Gerdau SA, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of Gerdau SA within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.α | Alpha over Dow Jones | 0.08 | |
β | Beta against Dow Jones | -0.2 | |
σ | Overall volatility | 2.42 | |
Ir | Information ratio | 0.03 |
Gerdau SA Price Density Drivers
Market volatility will typically increase when nervous long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the market lower. The future price of Gerdau Stock often depends not only on the future outlook of the current and potential Gerdau SA's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Gerdau SA's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 1.7 B |
Gerdau SA Technical Analysis
Gerdau SA's future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. Gerdau Stock technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of Gerdau SA. In general, you should focus on analyzing Gerdau Stock price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.
Gerdau SA Predictive Forecast Models
Gerdau SA's time-series forecasting models is one of many Gerdau SA's stock analysis techniques aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models are widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties, e.g., the mean and standard deviation, are not constant over time, but instead, these metrics vary over time. This non-stationary Gerdau SA's historical data is usually called time series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the stock market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.
Some investors attempt to determine whether the market's mood is bullish or bearish by monitoring changes in market sentiment. Unlike more traditional methods such as technical analysis, investor sentiment usually refers to the aggregate attitude towards Gerdau SA in the overall investment community. So, suppose investors can accurately measure the market's sentiment. In that case, they can use it for their benefit. For example, some tools to gauge market sentiment could be utilized using contrarian indexes, Gerdau SA's short interest history, or implied volatility extrapolated from Gerdau SA options trading.
Additional Tools for Gerdau Stock Analysis
When running Gerdau SA's price analysis, check to measure Gerdau SA's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Gerdau SA is operating at the current time. Most of Gerdau SA's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Gerdau SA's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Gerdau SA's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Gerdau SA to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.