Gudang Garam (Indonesia) Probability of Future Stock Price Finishing Under 25300.0
| GGRM Stock | IDR 13,500 100.00 0.74% |
Gudang |
Gudang Garam Target Price Odds to finish below 25300.0
The tendency of Gudang Stock price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
| Current Price | Horizon | Target Price | Odds to stay under 25,300 after 90 days |
| 13,500 | 90 days | 25,300 | close to 99 |
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of Gudang Garam to stay under 25,300 after 90 days from now is close to 99 (This Gudang Garam Tbk probability density function shows the probability of Gudang Stock to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) . Probability of Gudang Garam Tbk price to stay between its current price of 13,500 and 25,300 at the end of the 90-day period is about 80.69 .
Assuming the 90 days trading horizon Gudang Garam has a beta of 0.2. This usually indicates as returns on the market go up, Gudang Garam average returns are expected to increase less than the benchmark. However, during the bear market, the loss on holding Gudang Garam Tbk will be expected to be much smaller as well. Additionally Gudang Garam Tbk has a negative alpha, implying that the risk taken by holding this instrument is not justified. The company is significantly underperforming the Dow Jones Industrial. Gudang Garam Price Density |
| Price |
Predictive Modules for Gudang Garam
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Gudang Garam Tbk. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Gudang Garam Risk Indicators
For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. Gudang Garam is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the Gudang Garam's value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold Gudang Garam Tbk, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of Gudang Garam within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.α | Alpha over Dow Jones | -0.28 | |
β | Beta against Dow Jones | 0.20 | |
σ | Overall volatility | 1,268 | |
Ir | Information ratio | -0.21 |
Gudang Garam Alerts and Suggestions
In today's market, stock alerts give investors the competitive edge they need to time the market and increase returns. Checking the ongoing alerts of Gudang Garam for significant developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Suggestions and notifications for Gudang Garam Tbk can help investors quickly react to important events or material changes in technical or fundamental conditions and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.| Gudang Garam Tbk generated a negative expected return over the last 90 days | |
| About 76.0% of the company shares are held by company insiders |
Gudang Garam Price Density Drivers
Market volatility will typically increase when nervous long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the market lower. The future price of Gudang Stock often depends not only on the future outlook of the current and potential Gudang Garam's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Gudang Garam's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 1.9 B | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 4.2 T |
Gudang Garam Technical Analysis
Gudang Garam's future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. Gudang Stock technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of Gudang Garam Tbk. In general, you should focus on analyzing Gudang Stock price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.
Gudang Garam Predictive Forecast Models
Gudang Garam's time-series forecasting models is one of many Gudang Garam's stock analysis techniques aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models are widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties, e.g., the mean and standard deviation, are not constant over time, but instead, these metrics vary over time. This non-stationary Gudang Garam's historical data is usually called time series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the stock market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.
Things to note about Gudang Garam Tbk
Checking the ongoing alerts about Gudang Garam for important developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Our stock alerts and notifications screener for Gudang Garam Tbk help investors to be notified of important events, changes in technical or fundamental conditions, and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
| Gudang Garam Tbk generated a negative expected return over the last 90 days | |
| About 76.0% of the company shares are held by company insiders |
Other Information on Investing in Gudang Stock
Gudang Garam financial ratios help investors to determine whether Gudang Stock is cheap or expensive when compared to a particular measure, such as profits or enterprise value. In other words, they help investors to determine the cost of investment in Gudang with respect to the benefits of owning Gudang Garam security.