Golden Tobacco (India) Probability of Future Stock Price Finishing Over 39.37
| GOLDENTOBC | 40.00 0.01 0.03% |
Golden |
Golden Tobacco Target Price Odds to finish over 39.37
The tendency of Golden Stock price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
| Current Price | Horizon | Target Price | Odds to stay above 39.37 in 90 days |
| 40.00 | 90 days | 39.37 | about 66.12 |
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of Golden Tobacco to stay above 39.37 in 90 days from now is about 66.12 (This Golden Tobacco Limited probability density function shows the probability of Golden Stock to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) . Probability of Golden Tobacco price to stay between 39.37 and its current price of 40.0 at the end of the 90-day period is about 14.67 .
Assuming the 90 days trading horizon Golden Tobacco has a beta of 0.62. This usually indicates as returns on the market go up, Golden Tobacco average returns are expected to increase less than the benchmark. However, during the bear market, the loss on holding Golden Tobacco Limited will be expected to be much smaller as well. Additionally Golden Tobacco Limited has a negative alpha, implying that the risk taken by holding this instrument is not justified. The company is significantly underperforming the Dow Jones Industrial. Golden Tobacco Price Density |
| Price |
Predictive Modules for Golden Tobacco
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Golden Tobacco. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Golden Tobacco's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Golden Tobacco Risk Indicators
For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. Golden Tobacco is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the Golden Tobacco's value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold Golden Tobacco Limited, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of Golden Tobacco within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.α | Alpha over Dow Jones | -0.09 | |
β | Beta against Dow Jones | 0.62 | |
σ | Overall volatility | 1.66 | |
Ir | Information ratio | -0.06 |
Golden Tobacco Alerts and Suggestions
In today's market, stock alerts give investors the competitive edge they need to time the market and increase returns. Checking the ongoing alerts of Golden Tobacco for significant developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Suggestions and notifications for Golden Tobacco can help investors quickly react to important events or material changes in technical or fundamental conditions and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.| Golden Tobacco generated a negative expected return over the last 90 days | |
| Golden Tobacco Limited has accumulated about 11.6 M in cash with (1.5 M) of positive cash flow from operations. | |
| Roughly 62.0% of the company shares are held by company insiders |
Golden Tobacco Price Density Drivers
Market volatility will typically increase when nervous long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the market lower. The future price of Golden Stock often depends not only on the future outlook of the current and potential Golden Tobacco's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Golden Tobacco's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 17.6 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 11.6 M |
Golden Tobacco Technical Analysis
Golden Tobacco's future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. Golden Stock technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of Golden Tobacco Limited. In general, you should focus on analyzing Golden Stock price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.
Golden Tobacco Predictive Forecast Models
Golden Tobacco's time-series forecasting models is one of many Golden Tobacco's stock analysis techniques aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models are widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties, e.g., the mean and standard deviation, are not constant over time, but instead, these metrics vary over time. This non-stationary Golden Tobacco's historical data is usually called time series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the stock market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.
Things to note about Golden Tobacco
Checking the ongoing alerts about Golden Tobacco for important developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Our stock alerts and notifications screener for Golden Tobacco help investors to be notified of important events, changes in technical or fundamental conditions, and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
| Golden Tobacco generated a negative expected return over the last 90 days | |
| Golden Tobacco Limited has accumulated about 11.6 M in cash with (1.5 M) of positive cash flow from operations. | |
| Roughly 62.0% of the company shares are held by company insiders |
Additional Tools for Golden Stock Analysis
When running Golden Tobacco's price analysis, check to measure Golden Tobacco's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Golden Tobacco is operating at the current time. Most of Golden Tobacco's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Golden Tobacco's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Golden Tobacco's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Golden Tobacco to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.