Green Plains Renewable Stock Probability of Future Stock Price Finishing Over 14.38
| GPRE Stock | USD 9.38 0.16 1.74% |
Green |
Green Plains Target Price Odds to finish over 14.38
The tendency of Green Stock price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
| Current Price | Horizon | Target Price | Odds to move over $ 14.38 or more in 90 days |
| 9.38 | 90 days | 14.38 | near 1 |
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of Green Plains to move over $ 14.38 or more in 90 days from now is near 1 (This Green Plains Renewable probability density function shows the probability of Green Stock to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) . Probability of Green Plains Renewable price to stay between its current price of $ 9.38 and $ 14.38 at the end of the 90-day period is about 97.0 .
Given the investment horizon of 90 days Green Plains has a beta of 0.0486. This usually indicates as returns on the market go up, Green Plains average returns are expected to increase less than the benchmark. However, during the bear market, the loss on holding Green Plains Renewable will be expected to be much smaller as well. Additionally Green Plains Renewable has a negative alpha, implying that the risk taken by holding this instrument is not justified. The company is significantly underperforming the Dow Jones Industrial. Green Plains Price Density |
| Price |
Predictive Modules for Green Plains
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Green Plains Renewable. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Green Plains Risk Indicators
For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. Green Plains is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the Green Plains' value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold Green Plains Renewable, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of Green Plains within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.α | Alpha over Dow Jones | -0.49 | |
β | Beta against Dow Jones | 0.05 | |
σ | Overall volatility | 1.13 | |
Ir | Information ratio | -0.13 |
Green Plains Alerts and Suggestions
In today's market, stock alerts give investors the competitive edge they need to time the market and increase returns. Checking the ongoing alerts of Green Plains for significant developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Suggestions and notifications for Green Plains Renewable can help investors quickly react to important events or material changes in technical or fundamental conditions and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.| Green Plains generated a negative expected return over the last 90 days | |
| Green Plains has high historical volatility and very poor performance | |
| The company reported the previous year's revenue of 3.3 B. Net Loss for the year was (76.3 M) with profit before overhead, payroll, taxes, and interest of 112.68 M. | |
| Over 97.0% of the company shares are owned by institutional investors | |
| Latest headline from MacroaxisInsider: Disposition of 990 shares by Anderson James D of Green Plains at 19.98 subject to Rule 16b-3 |
Green Plains Price Density Drivers
Market volatility will typically increase when nervous long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the market lower. The future price of Green Stock often depends not only on the future outlook of the current and potential Green Plains' investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Green Plains' indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 58.8 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 349.6 M |
Green Plains Technical Analysis
Green Plains' future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. Green Stock technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of Green Plains Renewable. In general, you should focus on analyzing Green Stock price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.
Green Plains Predictive Forecast Models
Green Plains' time-series forecasting models is one of many Green Plains' stock analysis techniques aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models are widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties, e.g., the mean and standard deviation, are not constant over time, but instead, these metrics vary over time. This non-stationary Green Plains' historical data is usually called time series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the stock market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.
Things to note about Green Plains Renewable
Checking the ongoing alerts about Green Plains for important developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Our stock alerts and notifications screener for Green Plains Renewable help investors to be notified of important events, changes in technical or fundamental conditions, and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
| Green Plains generated a negative expected return over the last 90 days | |
| Green Plains has high historical volatility and very poor performance | |
| The company reported the previous year's revenue of 3.3 B. Net Loss for the year was (76.3 M) with profit before overhead, payroll, taxes, and interest of 112.68 M. | |
| Over 97.0% of the company shares are owned by institutional investors | |
| Latest headline from MacroaxisInsider: Disposition of 990 shares by Anderson James D of Green Plains at 19.98 subject to Rule 16b-3 |
Check out Green Plains Backtesting, Green Plains Valuation, Green Plains Correlation, Green Plains Hype Analysis, Green Plains Volatility, Green Plains History as well as Green Plains Performance. You can also try the Risk-Return Analysis module to view associations between returns expected from investment and the risk you assume.
Is Oil & Gas Refining & Marketing space expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Green Plains. If investors know Green will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Green Plains listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Quarterly Earnings Growth 0.977 | Earnings Share (0.32) | Revenue Per Share 41.372 | Quarterly Revenue Growth (0.26) | Return On Assets (0.01) |
The market value of Green Plains Renewable is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Green that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Green Plains' value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Green Plains' true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Green Plains' market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Green Plains' underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Green Plains' value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if Green Plains is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Green Plains' price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.