Guararapes Confeces (Brazil) Probability of Future Stock Price Finishing Under 4.13
| GUAR3 Stock | BRL 6.15 0.10 1.60% |
Guararapes |
Guararapes Confeces Target Price Odds to finish below 4.13
The tendency of Guararapes Stock price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
| Current Price | Horizon | Target Price | Odds to drop to R$ 4.13 or more in 90 days |
| 6.15 | 90 days | 4.13 | near 1 |
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of Guararapes Confeces to drop to R$ 4.13 or more in 90 days from now is near 1 (This Guararapes Confeces SA probability density function shows the probability of Guararapes Stock to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) . Probability of Guararapes Confeces price to stay between R$ 4.13 and its current price of R$6.15 at the end of the 90-day period is roughly 2.27 .
Assuming the 90 days trading horizon Guararapes Confeces SA has a beta of -0.19. This usually indicates as returns on the benchmark increase, returns on holding Guararapes Confeces are expected to decrease at a much lower rate. During a bear market, however, Guararapes Confeces SA is likely to outperform the market. Additionally Guararapes Confeces SA has a negative alpha, implying that the risk taken by holding this instrument is not justified. The company is significantly underperforming the Dow Jones Industrial. Guararapes Confeces Price Density |
| Price |
Predictive Modules for Guararapes Confeces
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Guararapes Confeces. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Guararapes Confeces Risk Indicators
For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. Guararapes Confeces is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the Guararapes Confeces' value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold Guararapes Confeces SA, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of Guararapes Confeces within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.α | Alpha over Dow Jones | -0.32 | |
β | Beta against Dow Jones | -0.19 | |
σ | Overall volatility | 0.80 | |
Ir | Information ratio | -0.08 |
Guararapes Confeces Alerts and Suggestions
In today's market, stock alerts give investors the competitive edge they need to time the market and increase returns. Checking the ongoing alerts of Guararapes Confeces for significant developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Suggestions and notifications for Guararapes Confeces can help investors quickly react to important events or material changes in technical or fundamental conditions and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.| Guararapes Confeces generated a negative expected return over the last 90 days | |
| Guararapes Confeces has high historical volatility and very poor performance | |
| Guararapes Confeces has accumulated R$2.92 Billion in debt which can lead to volatile earnings | |
| About 83.0% of the company shares are held by company insiders |
Guararapes Confeces Price Density Drivers
Market volatility will typically increase when nervous long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the market lower. The future price of Guararapes Stock often depends not only on the future outlook of the current and potential Guararapes Confeces' investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Guararapes Confeces' indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 499.2 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 2.1 B |
Guararapes Confeces Technical Analysis
Guararapes Confeces' future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. Guararapes Stock technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of Guararapes Confeces SA. In general, you should focus on analyzing Guararapes Stock price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.
Guararapes Confeces Predictive Forecast Models
Guararapes Confeces' time-series forecasting models is one of many Guararapes Confeces' stock analysis techniques aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models are widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties, e.g., the mean and standard deviation, are not constant over time, but instead, these metrics vary over time. This non-stationary Guararapes Confeces' historical data is usually called time series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the stock market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.
Things to note about Guararapes Confeces
Checking the ongoing alerts about Guararapes Confeces for important developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Our stock alerts and notifications screener for Guararapes Confeces help investors to be notified of important events, changes in technical or fundamental conditions, and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
| Guararapes Confeces generated a negative expected return over the last 90 days | |
| Guararapes Confeces has high historical volatility and very poor performance | |
| Guararapes Confeces has accumulated R$2.92 Billion in debt which can lead to volatile earnings | |
| About 83.0% of the company shares are held by company insiders |
Additional Tools for Guararapes Stock Analysis
When running Guararapes Confeces' price analysis, check to measure Guararapes Confeces' market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Guararapes Confeces is operating at the current time. Most of Guararapes Confeces' value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Guararapes Confeces' future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Guararapes Confeces' price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Guararapes Confeces to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.