Ceylon Guardian (Sri Lanka) Probability of Future Stock Price Finishing Under 63.16
| GUARN0000 | LKR 112.75 0.25 0.22% |
Ceylon |
Ceylon Guardian Target Price Odds to finish below 63.16
The tendency of Ceylon Stock price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
| Current Price | Horizon | Target Price | Odds to drop to 63.16 or more in 90 days |
| 112.75 | 90 days | 63.16 | near 1 |
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of Ceylon Guardian to drop to 63.16 or more in 90 days from now is near 1 (This Ceylon Guardian Investment probability density function shows the probability of Ceylon Stock to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) . Probability of Ceylon Guardian Inve price to stay between 63.16 and its current price of 112.75 at the end of the 90-day period is over 95.57 .
Assuming the 90 days trading horizon Ceylon Guardian has a beta of 0.11. This usually indicates as returns on the market go up, Ceylon Guardian average returns are expected to increase less than the benchmark. However, during the bear market, the loss on holding Ceylon Guardian Investment will be expected to be much smaller as well. Additionally Ceylon Guardian Investment has an alpha of 0.2668, implying that it can generate a 0.27 percent excess return over Dow Jones Industrial after adjusting for the inherited market risk (beta). Ceylon Guardian Price Density |
| Price |
Predictive Modules for Ceylon Guardian
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Ceylon Guardian Inve. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Ceylon Guardian Risk Indicators
For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. Ceylon Guardian is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the Ceylon Guardian's value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold Ceylon Guardian Investment, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of Ceylon Guardian within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.α | Alpha over Dow Jones | 0.27 | |
β | Beta against Dow Jones | 0.11 | |
σ | Overall volatility | 5.11 | |
Ir | Information ratio | 0.08 |
Ceylon Guardian Technical Analysis
Ceylon Guardian's future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. Ceylon Stock technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of Ceylon Guardian Investment. In general, you should focus on analyzing Ceylon Stock price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.
Ceylon Guardian Predictive Forecast Models
Ceylon Guardian's time-series forecasting models is one of many Ceylon Guardian's stock analysis techniques aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models are widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties, e.g., the mean and standard deviation, are not constant over time, but instead, these metrics vary over time. This non-stationary Ceylon Guardian's historical data is usually called time series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the stock market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.
Some investors attempt to determine whether the market's mood is bullish or bearish by monitoring changes in market sentiment. Unlike more traditional methods such as technical analysis, investor sentiment usually refers to the aggregate attitude towards Ceylon Guardian in the overall investment community. So, suppose investors can accurately measure the market's sentiment. In that case, they can use it for their benefit. For example, some tools to gauge market sentiment could be utilized using contrarian indexes, Ceylon Guardian's short interest history, or implied volatility extrapolated from Ceylon Guardian options trading.
Other Information on Investing in Ceylon Stock
Ceylon Guardian financial ratios help investors to determine whether Ceylon Stock is cheap or expensive when compared to a particular measure, such as profits or enterprise value. In other words, they help investors to determine the cost of investment in Ceylon with respect to the benefits of owning Ceylon Guardian security.