GULF ENERGY (Thailand) Probability of Future Stock Price Finishing Under 56.04
| GULF-R Stock | THB 59.75 0.75 1.24% |
GULF |
GULF ENERGY Target Price Odds to finish below 56.04
The tendency of GULF Stock price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
| Current Price | Horizon | Target Price | Odds to drop to 56.04 or more in 90 days |
| 59.75 | 90 days | 56.04 | about 79.72 |
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of GULF ENERGY to drop to 56.04 or more in 90 days from now is about 79.72 (This GULF ENERGY DEVELOPMENT NVDR probability density function shows the probability of GULF Stock to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) . Probability of GULF ENERGY DEVELOPMENT price to stay between 56.04 and its current price of 59.75 at the end of the 90-day period is about 12.71 .
Assuming the 90 days trading horizon GULF ENERGY DEVELOPMENT NVDR has a beta of -0.26. This usually indicates as returns on the benchmark increase, returns on holding GULF ENERGY are expected to decrease at a much lower rate. During a bear market, however, GULF ENERGY DEVELOPMENT NVDR is likely to outperform the market. Additionally GULF ENERGY DEVELOPMENT NVDR has an alpha of 0.3998, implying that it can generate a 0.4 percent excess return over Dow Jones Industrial after adjusting for the inherited market risk (beta). GULF ENERGY Price Density |
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Predictive Modules for GULF ENERGY
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as GULF ENERGY DEVELOPMENT. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.GULF ENERGY Risk Indicators
For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. GULF ENERGY is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the GULF ENERGY's value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold GULF ENERGY DEVELOPMENT NVDR, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of GULF ENERGY within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.α | Alpha over Dow Jones | 0.40 | |
β | Beta against Dow Jones | -0.26 | |
σ | Overall volatility | 6.12 | |
Ir | Information ratio | 0.09 |
GULF ENERGY Alerts and Suggestions
In today's market, stock alerts give investors the competitive edge they need to time the market and increase returns. Checking the ongoing alerts of GULF ENERGY for significant developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Suggestions and notifications for GULF ENERGY DEVELOPMENT can help investors quickly react to important events or material changes in technical or fundamental conditions and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.| GULF ENERGY had very high historical volatility over the last 90 days | |
| GULF ENERGY has high financial leverage indicating that it may have difficulties to generate enough cash to satisfy its financial obligations |
GULF ENERGY Price Density Drivers
Market volatility will typically increase when nervous long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the market lower. The future price of GULF Stock often depends not only on the future outlook of the current and potential GULF ENERGY's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. GULF ENERGY's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Trailing Annual Dividend Rate | 1.20 | |
| Float Shares | 826.04M | |
| Trailing Annual Dividend Yield | 0.96% |
GULF ENERGY Technical Analysis
GULF ENERGY's future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. GULF Stock technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of GULF ENERGY DEVELOPMENT NVDR. In general, you should focus on analyzing GULF Stock price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.
GULF ENERGY Predictive Forecast Models
GULF ENERGY's time-series forecasting models is one of many GULF ENERGY's stock analysis techniques aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models are widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties, e.g., the mean and standard deviation, are not constant over time, but instead, these metrics vary over time. This non-stationary GULF ENERGY's historical data is usually called time series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the stock market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.
Things to note about GULF ENERGY DEVELOPMENT
Checking the ongoing alerts about GULF ENERGY for important developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Our stock alerts and notifications screener for GULF ENERGY DEVELOPMENT help investors to be notified of important events, changes in technical or fundamental conditions, and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
| GULF ENERGY had very high historical volatility over the last 90 days | |
| GULF ENERGY has high financial leverage indicating that it may have difficulties to generate enough cash to satisfy its financial obligations |
Other Information on Investing in GULF Stock
GULF ENERGY financial ratios help investors to determine whether GULF Stock is cheap or expensive when compared to a particular measure, such as profits or enterprise value. In other words, they help investors to determine the cost of investment in GULF with respect to the benefits of owning GULF ENERGY security.