Harmony Gold (Argentina) Probability of Future Stock Price Finishing Under 9,498

HMY Stock  ARS 9,770  140.00  1.41%   
Harmony Gold's future price is the expected price of Harmony Gold instrument. It is based on its current growth rate as well as the projected cash flow expected by the investors. This tool provides a mechanism to make assumptions about the upside potential and downside risk of Harmony Gold Mining performance during a given time horizon utilizing its historical volatility. Check out Harmony Gold Backtesting, Harmony Gold Valuation, Harmony Gold Correlation, Harmony Gold Hype Analysis, Harmony Gold Volatility, Harmony Gold History as well as Harmony Gold Performance.
  
Please specify Harmony Gold's target price for which you would like Harmony Gold odds to be computed.

Harmony Gold Target Price Odds to finish below 9,498

The tendency of Harmony Stock price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
Current PriceHorizonTarget PriceOdds to move below current price in 90 days
 9,770 90 days 9,770 
about 7.19
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of Harmony Gold to move below current price in 90 days from now is about 7.19 (This Harmony Gold Mining probability density function shows the probability of Harmony Stock to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) .
Assuming the 90 days trading horizon Harmony Gold Mining has a beta of -0.14. This usually indicates as returns on the benchmark increase, returns on holding Harmony Gold are expected to decrease at a much lower rate. During a bear market, however, Harmony Gold Mining is likely to outperform the market. Additionally Harmony Gold Mining has a negative alpha, implying that the risk taken by holding this instrument is not justified. The company is significantly underperforming the Dow Jones Industrial.
   Harmony Gold Price Density   
       Price  

Predictive Modules for Harmony Gold

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Harmony Gold Mining. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimatedHigh
9,9069,9109,914
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowRealHigh
9,1739,17710,901
Details
Naive
Forecast
LowNextHigh
10,56610,56910,573
Details
Bollinger
Band Projection (param)
LowerMiddle BandUpper
9,43410,11610,799
Details

Harmony Gold Risk Indicators

For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. Harmony Gold is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the Harmony Gold's value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold Harmony Gold Mining, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of Harmony Gold within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.
α
Alpha over Dow Jones
-0.08
β
Beta against Dow Jones-0.14
σ
Overall volatility
1,358
Ir
Information ratio -0.05

Harmony Gold Alerts and Suggestions

In today's market, stock alerts give investors the competitive edge they need to time the market and increase returns. Checking the ongoing alerts of Harmony Gold for significant developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Suggestions and notifications for Harmony Gold Mining can help investors quickly react to important events or material changes in technical or fundamental conditions and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
Harmony Gold Mining generated a negative expected return over the last 90 days
Harmony Gold Mining has high historical volatility and very poor performance
The company reported the revenue of 42.65 B. Net Loss for the year was (1.05 B) with profit before overhead, payroll, taxes, and interest of 9.05 B.

Harmony Gold Price Density Drivers

Market volatility will typically increase when nervous long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the market lower. The future price of Harmony Stock often depends not only on the future outlook of the current and potential Harmony Gold's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Harmony Gold's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
Common Stock Shares Outstanding616.5 M

Harmony Gold Technical Analysis

Harmony Gold's future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. Harmony Stock technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of Harmony Gold Mining. In general, you should focus on analyzing Harmony Stock price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.

Harmony Gold Predictive Forecast Models

Harmony Gold's time-series forecasting models is one of many Harmony Gold's stock analysis techniques aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models are widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties, e.g., the mean and standard deviation, are not constant over time, but instead, these metrics vary over time. This non-stationary Harmony Gold's historical data is usually called time series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the stock market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.

Things to note about Harmony Gold Mining

Checking the ongoing alerts about Harmony Gold for important developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Our stock alerts and notifications screener for Harmony Gold Mining help investors to be notified of important events, changes in technical or fundamental conditions, and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
Harmony Gold Mining generated a negative expected return over the last 90 days
Harmony Gold Mining has high historical volatility and very poor performance
The company reported the revenue of 42.65 B. Net Loss for the year was (1.05 B) with profit before overhead, payroll, taxes, and interest of 9.05 B.

Additional Information and Resources on Investing in Harmony Stock

When determining whether Harmony Gold Mining offers a strong return on investment in its stock, a comprehensive analysis is essential. The process typically begins with a thorough review of Harmony Gold's financial statements, including income statements, balance sheets, and cash flow statements, to assess its financial health. Key financial ratios are used to gauge profitability, efficiency, and growth potential of Harmony Gold Mining Stock. Outlined below are crucial reports that will aid in making a well-informed decision on Harmony Gold Mining Stock:
Check out Harmony Gold Backtesting, Harmony Gold Valuation, Harmony Gold Correlation, Harmony Gold Hype Analysis, Harmony Gold Volatility, Harmony Gold History as well as Harmony Gold Performance.
You can also try the Stock Tickers module to use high-impact, comprehensive, and customizable stock tickers that can be easily integrated to any websites.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Harmony Gold's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if Harmony Gold is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Harmony Gold's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.