Home Bancshares Stock Probability of Future Stock Price Finishing Over 24.13

HOMB Stock  USD 31.01  0.25  0.80%   
Home BancShares' future price is the expected price of Home BancShares instrument. It is based on its current growth rate as well as the projected cash flow expected by the investors. This tool provides a mechanism to make assumptions about the upside potential and downside risk of Home BancShares performance during a given time horizon utilizing its historical volatility. Check out Home BancShares Backtesting, Home BancShares Valuation, Home BancShares Correlation, Home BancShares Hype Analysis, Home BancShares Volatility, Home BancShares History as well as Home BancShares Performance.
For information on how to trade Home Stock refer to our How to Trade Home Stock guide.
  
At present, Home BancShares' Price To Sales Ratio is projected to slightly decrease based on the last few years of reporting. The current year's Price Book Value Ratio is expected to grow to 1.94, whereas Price Earnings Ratio is forecasted to decline to 12.41. Please specify Home BancShares' target price for which you would like Home BancShares odds to be computed.

Home BancShares Target Price Odds to finish over 24.13

The tendency of Home Stock price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
Current PriceHorizonTarget PriceOdds to stay above $ 24.13  in 90 days
 31.01 90 days 24.13 
about 97.0
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of Home BancShares to stay above $ 24.13  in 90 days from now is about 97.0 (This Home BancShares probability density function shows the probability of Home Stock to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) . Probability of Home BancShares price to stay between $ 24.13  and its current price of $31.01 at the end of the 90-day period is about 88.83 .
Given the investment horizon of 90 days the stock has the beta coefficient of 1.97 . This usually indicates as the benchmark fluctuates upward, the company is expected to outperform it on average. However, if the benchmark returns are projected to be negative, Home BancShares will likely underperform. Additionally Home BancShares has a negative alpha, implying that the risk taken by holding this instrument is not justified. The company is significantly underperforming the Dow Jones Industrial.
   Home BancShares Price Density   
       Price  

Predictive Modules for Home BancShares

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Home BancShares. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimatedHigh
28.8130.9233.03
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowRealHigh
27.0429.1531.26
Details
7 Analysts
Consensus
LowTargetHigh
25.7828.3331.45
Details
Earnings
Estimates (0)
LowProjected EPSHigh
0.500.530.53
Details

Home BancShares Risk Indicators

For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. Home BancShares is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the Home BancShares' value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold Home BancShares, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of Home BancShares within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.
α
Alpha over Dow Jones
-0.04
β
Beta against Dow Jones1.97
σ
Overall volatility
2.08
Ir
Information ratio 0.04

Home BancShares Alerts and Suggestions

In today's market, stock alerts give investors the competitive edge they need to time the market and increase returns. Checking the ongoing alerts of Home BancShares for significant developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Suggestions and notifications for Home BancShares can help investors quickly react to important events or material changes in technical or fundamental conditions and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
About 70.0% of the company shares are owned by institutional investors
On 4th of December 2024 Home BancShares paid $ 0.195 per share dividend to its current shareholders
Latest headline from investing.com: Equity Bancshares director James Loving acquires 200,250 in stock

Home BancShares Price Density Drivers

Market volatility will typically increase when nervous long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the market lower. The future price of Home Stock often depends not only on the future outlook of the current and potential Home BancShares' investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Home BancShares' indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
Common Stock Shares Outstanding202.8 M
Cash And Short Term Investments3.7 B

Home BancShares Technical Analysis

Home BancShares' future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. Home Stock technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of Home BancShares. In general, you should focus on analyzing Home Stock price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.

Home BancShares Predictive Forecast Models

Home BancShares' time-series forecasting models is one of many Home BancShares' stock analysis techniques aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models are widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties, e.g., the mean and standard deviation, are not constant over time, but instead, these metrics vary over time. This non-stationary Home BancShares' historical data is usually called time series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the stock market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.

Things to note about Home BancShares

Checking the ongoing alerts about Home BancShares for important developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Our stock alerts and notifications screener for Home BancShares help investors to be notified of important events, changes in technical or fundamental conditions, and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
About 70.0% of the company shares are owned by institutional investors
On 4th of December 2024 Home BancShares paid $ 0.195 per share dividend to its current shareholders
Latest headline from investing.com: Equity Bancshares director James Loving acquires 200,250 in stock
When determining whether Home BancShares offers a strong return on investment in its stock, a comprehensive analysis is essential. The process typically begins with a thorough review of Home BancShares' financial statements, including income statements, balance sheets, and cash flow statements, to assess its financial health. Key financial ratios are used to gauge profitability, efficiency, and growth potential of Home Bancshares Stock. Outlined below are crucial reports that will aid in making a well-informed decision on Home Bancshares Stock:
Check out Home BancShares Backtesting, Home BancShares Valuation, Home BancShares Correlation, Home BancShares Hype Analysis, Home BancShares Volatility, Home BancShares History as well as Home BancShares Performance.
For information on how to trade Home Stock refer to our How to Trade Home Stock guide.
You can also try the Performance Analysis module to check effects of mean-variance optimization against your current asset allocation.
Is Regional Banks space expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Home BancShares. If investors know Home will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Home BancShares listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Quarterly Earnings Growth
0.029
Dividend Share
0.735
Earnings Share
1.94
Revenue Per Share
4.821
Quarterly Revenue Growth
(0.02)
The market value of Home BancShares is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Home that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Home BancShares' value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Home BancShares' true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Home BancShares' market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Home BancShares' underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Home BancShares' value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if Home BancShares is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Home BancShares' price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.